ROME, July 9 — Against this backdrop of war in Ukraine, the global food system has been shaken in ways not seen in decades. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted international markets for both food and energy, sending shockwaves through supply chains that stretch from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean and beyond. What is at stake is the stability of grain supplies for millions of people, particularly in regions that depend on imports from these two agricultural powerhouses.
Russia and Ukraine together account for approximately 30 percent of global wheat exports, 20 percent of corn exports, and a staggering 80 percent of sunflower oil exports. These are not marginal figures; they represent the backbone of the global grain trade.
When the war erupted, prices soared. Wheat prices rose to $12.94 per bushel in March 2022, the highest level since 2008. Energy prices followed a similar trajectory.
Brent crude oil reached $139 per barrel in March 2022, while European natural gas prices hit €345 per megawatt-hour in August of that year. The cost of living for European households and businesses climbed sharply.
In the corridors of diplomacy, a breakthrough came on July 22, 2022. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, allowed Ukraine to resume grain exports from its Black Sea ports. By July 2023, Ukraine had exported over 32 million metric tons of grain under the deal.
But the agreement was fragile, and Russia ultimately withdrew from it. By late 2023, wheat prices had fallen to around $6.00 per bushel, a significant decline from the war’s peak. Yet the wider picture remains complex.
The European Union reduced its imports of Russian gas from 40 percent of total supply in 2021 to about 8 percent by 2023. This shift, while strategically important, came with higher energy costs for consumers and businesses across the continent.
The World Bank has estimated that the war pushed 70 million people into poverty in 2022 alone. That figure captures the scale of human hardship that has unfolded alongside the market volatility. The disruption to global food and energy markets has not been evenly felt.
In Europe, governments have scrambled to cushion the blow with subsidies and price caps. But for countries in North Africa and the Middle East that rely heavily on wheat imports from the Black Sea region, the consequences have been more direct.
Bread prices have risen, and food security has become a pressing concern. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, despite its eventual collapse, demonstrated what coordinated international action can achieve. Over 32 million metric tons of grain moved through the corridor in its year of operation, helping to stabilise prices and ease supply fears.
Its termination has left a gap that has yet to be fully filled. Looking ahead, the question of how to restore reliable grain exports from Ukraine remains unresolved. The wider picture also includes the ongoing shift in European energy policy, which has reduced dependence on Russian gas but at a considerable economic cost.
The interplay between food and energy markets, both disrupted by the same conflict, will continue to shape policy decisions in Brussels, Washington, and beyond. What is at stake is not merely the price of a bushel of wheat or a barrel of oil, but the livelihoods of tens of millions of people who were already vulnerable before the war began.
The corridors of power in Europe and the United States are still grappling with how to respond.
