LONDON, July 10 — For all the noise about energy transition, the salient point remains that the world’s most important oil chokepoint is busier than ever. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that an average of 21 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil and petroleum products transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2022, representing roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption. Of that total, approximately 17 million b/d was crude oil, with the remaining 4 million b/d consisting of refined products.
The strait, at its narrowest point 33 kilometres wide, accommodates two 3-kilometre-wide shipping lanes separated by a 3-kilometre buffer zone. Its depth, a minimum of about 30 metres, permits passage for the largest oil tankers.
The geography is unforgivingly tight. Any disruption in this narrow corridor—whether from military confrontation, sabotage, or diplomatic breakdown—would have immediate consequences for global oil markets. The EIA’s data underscores just how concentrated the world’s energy supply routes remain.
Asian dependence
The figures also reveal a stark geographic imbalance. In 2022, roughly 80% of the oil transiting the strait headed to Asian markets. China received 1.8 million b/d, Japan 1.2 million b/d, India 1.1 million b/d, and South Korea 0.9 million b/d.
These four countries alone accounted for the vast majority of strait-bound crude and refined product flows. For Asian economies with limited domestic production and few alternative import routes, the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a strategic concern—it is a daily logistical necessity.
Japan and South Korea, in particular, rely almost entirely on Middle Eastern crude, making them acutely vulnerable to any closure or restriction. The EIA noted that liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the strait totalled about 3.5 trillion cubic feet in 2022, accounting for nearly 30% of global LNG trade. This adds a second layer of exposure: while oil can be stored and rerouted with relative difficulty, LNG requires specialised tankers and regasification terminals, making supply chain disruptions harder to manage.
Physical constraints and strategic vulnerability
The strait’s physical dimensions impose hard limits on traffic management. With two 3-kilometre-wide shipping lanes and a 3-kilometre buffer zone, there is little room for error. A single tanker collision or grounding could block the channel for days.
The EIA’s data suggests that even a partial closure would remove millions of barrels per day from global supply, with price spikes felt within hours. The 21 million b/d figure includes both crude and refined products, meaning that refineries in Asia and elsewhere depend on the strait not just for raw feedstock but also for finished fuels.
The 4 million b/d of refined products that passed through in 2022 represents a significant share of global trade in petrol, diesel, and other processed fuels. For all the talk of diversification and energy independence, the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most concentrated point of vulnerability in the world’s energy system. The EIA’s 2022 figures provide a sobering baseline: one-fifth of the world’s daily petroleum consumption moves through a channel barely 33 kilometres wide.
What to watch next is whether the new US administration will adjust its approach to Gulf security in ways that alter the risk calculus for the strait. For now, the numbers speak for themselves.
