President Donald Trump’s hardline posture toward Iran, forged during his first term and revived on the campaign trail, is no longer a promise. Since returning to the White House in January 2025 after winning the 2024 election, his administration has turned that stance into operational doctrine. The key actions that defined his earlier approach — the 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and the 2020 drone strike that killed Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani — now serve as the foundation of current policy.
The continuity is deliberate: what was once a break from multilateral diplomacy is now the baseline for dealing with Tehran.
Iran’s Parallel Power Centers
The Iranian leadership presents a layered command structure that complicates any direct confrontation. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in power since 1989, holds final authority over nuclear and foreign policy. President Ebrahim Raisi, who won election in 2021, manages day-to-day governance but operates firmly within Khamenei’s framework.
Beneath this civilian layer sits the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, designated a terrorist organization by the United States in 2019. The IRGC controls Iran’s ballistic missile program and directs a network of proxy forces across Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.
It answers directly to the Supreme Leader, not the elected president, creating a parallel power structure that the Trump administration must factor into any strategic calculation. The internal dynamics among these three actors — the Supreme Leader, the president, and the Guard Corps — shape the conflict’s trajectory. Khamenei has not signaled any willingness to renegotiate the nuclear file on terms acceptable to Washington.
Raisi, a conservative cleric, has consolidated domestic control but lacks the authority to overrule the Supreme Leader on national security matters. The IRGC continues to expand its missile capabilities and sustain proxy operations across the region.
Rivalries and overlapping jurisdictions make Iranian decision-making opaque, adding layers of uncertainty for any U.S. policy response.
Policy Toolkit and Regional Risks
The Trump administration’s policy toolkit currently includes renewed sanctions, the permanent structural change of JCPOA withdrawal, and the precedent of direct military action against senior Iranian commanders. The 2020 Soleimani strike demonstrated a willingness to target high-ranking figures, a threshold that now defines the operational baseline rather than an exceptional measure.
Whether the administration pursues a diplomatic off-ramp or escalates pressure further depends on how the Iranian actors respond to the current posture. A key area to watch is whether the IRGC tests the administration’s red lines with proxy attacks on U.S. forces or allied assets in the region. The command-and-control relationship between Tehran and its proxies allows for deniability, but the 2019 terrorist designation removed legal ambiguity about the Guard Corps’ status.
Any proxy action attributed to the IRGC carries the risk of a direct U.S. response — a calculation Khamenei and Guard commanders must weigh against their strategic objectives. Understanding the stakes requires placing these policy choices in the context of Trump’s career and return to power.
Trump, born in New York City in 1946, built a real estate empire and hosted a reality television show before entering politics. He won the presidency in 2016 as an outsider, defeating Democrat Hillary Clinton. His first term saw sharp shifts: a travel ban on several Muslim-majority nations, accelerated border wall construction, enforcement of a family separation policy, rollback of environmental regulations, a major tax overhaul, and appointment of three Supreme Court justices.
Abroad, he withdrew from international climate and trade agreements, launched a trade confrontation with China, and pulled the United States out of the Iranian nuclear deal in 2018.
