The North Atlantic Treaty Organization convenes its leaders in Washington from July 9 to 11 for a summit that marks the alliance’s 75th anniversary. Founded by the North Atlantic Treaty signed on April 4, 1949, the alliance now counts 31 member states as of 2024, having added Finland on April 4, 2023, and Sweden on March 7, 2024. The gathering, taking place in the U.S. capital, comes amid internal debate over defense spending and the trajectory of Western support for Ukraine, two issues that will shape the summit’s agenda.
Defense Spending, Deterrence, and Ukraine Top the Agenda
NATO officials have confirmed that key agenda items include increasing defense spending to meet the 2 percent GDP target, strengthening deterrence against Russia, and providing long-term support for Ukraine. The 2 percent benchmark has long been a point of contention among member states; while several NATO countries have increased their military budgets in recent years, not all have reached the goal. The summit is expected to press allies on this commitment as the alliance seeks to sustain a credible deterrent posture.
The question of how far to extend military, financial, and political backing to Ukraine without triggering direct confrontation with Russia continues to divide the alliance. The reported exclusion of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky from speaking at the summit reflects tensions between maintaining solidarity with Kyiv and navigating domestic political dynamics in the United States.
This issue has taken on added weight as the potential return of former President Donald Trump casts a shadow over the proceedings. Trump has criticized NATO allies and suggested he would encourage Russia to attack those not meeting their spending commitments, a position that has sharpened the burden-sharing debate within the alliance.
Ukraine’s Place in NATO’s Strategic Calculus
The summit’s discussion of Ukraine is rooted in a long history of contested sovereignty in Eastern Europe. The modern Ukrainian state traces its origins to Kievan Rus’, a loose federation of Slavic tribes that flourished between the ninth and 13th centuries before fragmenting under external pressure. Centuries of rule by Lithuania, Poland, the Ottoman Empire, and the Russian Empire followed, punctuated by brief periods of self-rule such as the Cossack Hetmanate in the 17th century.
After the Russian Revolution in 1917, Ukraine declared independence for a time, only to be reabsorbed into the Soviet Union in 1922. The Soviet era brought industrialization and centralized control, but also the Holodomor, a catastrophic famine in the early 1930s that killed many Ukrainians.
During World War II, German occupation and the Holocaust brought further devastation. Ukraine regained full sovereignty in 1991 when the Soviet Union dissolved, though internal corruption and weak institutions slowed its transition to a market democracy. Ukraine is a sovereign nation in Eastern Europe bordered by Russia to the east, Belarus to the north, and several European Union states to the west and southwest. Its capital is Kyiv, a city whose history predates the Christianization of Rus’ in 988.
The country’s language, culture, and identity developed over centuries despite frequent changes in ruling powers. NATO’s involvement with Ukraine deepened after the Euromaidan protests of 2013–2014, which led to a change of government and Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Since then, the alliance has treated Ukraine as a partner in need of security assistance rather than a prospective member. Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 turned that partnership into a frontline defense of Europe’s postwar order, and NATO summits have become the main diplomatic stage where allies weigh how far to extend military, financial, and political backing without triggering direct conflict with Russia.
Challenges Ahead for Alliance Unity
Looking ahead, the alliance faces the challenge of maintaining unity on Ukraine while managing the political dynamics in Washington. The outcome of the summit will signal whether NATO can sustain its collective posture amid these pressures.
The debate over Ukraine’s role—symbolized by whether its president speaks to the assembled leaders—mirrors a broader question: how much risk the alliance is willing to assume to uphold a European state’s territorial integrity. With the 75th anniversary summit as a backdrop, the decisions made in Washington will set the tone for the alliance’s next chapter.
