The International Space Station, a 420-ton structure that has circled Earth for 24 years, requires regular propulsion to maintain its altitude. Without these boosts, the station gradually descends.
Russia’s Progress cargo spacecraft, attached to the Zvezda service module, currently provide this critical thrust. Dmitry Rogozin, head of Roscosmos, stated on Saturday that this propulsion capability is now a point of contention. Speaking on state television, Rogozin confirmed his agency is preparing a “cooperation outlook” for the Russian government.
This document may recommend ending Russian involvement in the ISS program entirely. The catalyst is the sanctions imposed following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, which froze assets of state-owned Russian companies and restricted the export of dual-use electronics—components Roscosmos relies on for spacecraft guidance and docking systems.
The March 31 deadline Rogozin set in mid-March, demanding the United States, European Union, and Canada revoke those restrictions, passed without action. “The ISS program can no longer operate on the old principles,” Rogozin declared after the deadline expired. Roscosmos is now modeling the consequences of a sudden withdrawal, examining impacts on Russian modules, cargo deliveries, and crew rotations.
The report is expected to reach Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov within days. Western officials dismissed the ultimatum as performative.
A U.S. State Department spokesperson reiterated on April 2 that export controls “are not negotiable” and any future easing depends on a ceasefire and troop withdrawal. Canada’s Space Agency issued a matching statement. The European Space Agency stated that “operational safety remains our priority” but offered no indication it would comply with Moscow’s demands.
Rogozin’s central argument rests on propulsion. Russia’s Progress freighters, docked to the Zvezda module, periodically fire to boost the ISS.
Without these maneuvers, the station cannot sustain its orbit—a mechanical reality Rogozin is now leveraging. The ISS has operated for 24 years as a joint project involving the United States, Russia, Europe, Canada, and Japan. A sudden Russian exit would leave the U.S. and its partners without a primary reboost capability.
The U.S. currently has no independent method to raise the station’s orbit. Europe’s ATV cargo ship is retired, and Japan’s HTV does not perform reboosts.
Russia’s Progress remains the sole option. Rogozin is aware of this dependency. The modeling underway at Roscosmos is practical: How long can the station function without Russian thrusters? What if Russian modules are disconnected?
How are crew rotations managed if Soyuz capsules are grounded? These are the questions the report to Borisov will address.
For now, the ISS continues operating. The Progress freighters remain docked, and the thrusters still fire. However, the threat is explicit: Rogozin has linked the station’s future to sanctions relief.
The West has refused. The station’s trajectory may now depend on political decisions rather than orbital mechanics.
