A Rare Crack in Kremlin Unity
Gref did not offer a routine expression of support for the military campaign. Instead, he spoke directly to the President about the economic strain gripping the nation. “We have already overcooled the economy,” he said bluntly. He cited rising hardship including petrol queues, falling wages, soaring prices, and cripplingly high interest rates, all driven by the war’s high military spending. Gref then voiced what he described as a nationwide sentiment. “I think what’s worrying every one of us is one and the same thing,” he said. “I don’t think there’s a single person who isn’t concerned about anything other than a rapid end of hostilities, that’s clear.” The plea comes as a new poll indicates that 81 percent of Russians want the war to end–the highest figure recorded since the conflict began, according to the Kyiv-based Institute for Conflict Study and Analysis.
The banker’s public break with the Kremlin’s war narrative carries particular weight given his position. Sberbank is a state-controlled giant at the heart of Russia’s financial system, and Gref himself was once a key economic official, having served as Minister of Economic Development and Trade until 2007. He was succeeded in that role by Elvira Nabiullina, who now governs the Central Bank of Russia. Nabiullina, a longtime economic aide to Putin, was appointed to lead the central bank in 2013, only the second woman to hold that post in Russian history. Her career spans the post-Soviet era, from the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in the early 1990s through senior roles at the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade. She worked alongside then-Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Kudrin during an era of high oil prices and fiscal discipline.
Economic Toll Mounts
Nabiullina now oversees monetary policy during a period of severe economic strain. The war in Ukraine has driven up military spending, triggered sweeping Western sanctions, and disrupted trade. Under her leadership, the central bank has raised interest rates sharply and imposed capital controls in an effort to stabilize the ruble. The economic pressures Gref warned of are being compounded by Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory. Last night, Ukraine struck an oil facility in the city of Ufa, located more than 800 miles behind the front lines. That city is particularly significant: Elvira Nabiullina was born in Ufa. The strikes on oil refineries are exacerbating the very economic difficulties Gref described, adding a new layer of pressure on the Russian economy.
The wider picture is one of a regime that has rarely tolerated such public dissent from its inner circle. Gref’s plea on state television marks a significant departure from the usual script of unwavering support for the war. His warning that the economy has been “overcooled” suggests that even powerful voices within the system see the conflict as unsustainable. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s defense minister has warned in a letter that Kyiv has a window of between six and nine months on the battlefield to press its advantage over Russia. Ukraine has been taking the fight deep into Russian territory, as demonstrated by the strike on Ufa.
Nabiullina’s decisions in the coming months will shape whether the Russian economy can endure the costs of the conflict. Her birthplace, now a target of Ukrainian attacks, underscores how the war has reached far beyond the front lines, creating new vulnerabilities even in areas once considered safe. For a regime that has long controlled the public message, Gref’s open appeal for an end to hostilities signals a widening recognition of the war’s toll. Whether that recognition translates into a change in policy remains uncertain, but the economic and political pressures are mounting.
