WASHINGTON, July 9 — The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, remains the world’s single most consequential maritime chokepoint for oil shipments. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, approximately 17 million barrels of oil passed through the strait daily in 2023, representing about 20 percent of total global oil consumption. The figure underscores why the waterway has been a persistent flashpoint in U.S.-Iranian relations for decades.
The current tensions, as of June 2024, center on Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities and the U.S. sanctions response. The record shows that these developments have raised the risk of a confrontation in the strait, according to the source material.
The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, holds the responsibility for maintaining freedom of navigation through the narrow passage.
A History of Confrontation
The strait has been a focal point of geopolitical tension since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. During the Iran-Iraq War, from 1980 to 1988, both nations attacked oil tankers in the region in what became known as the Tanker War. In 1987, the United States began reflagging Kuwaiti tankers and escorting them through the strait under Operation Earnest Will.
The operation marked a direct American military commitment to keeping the waterway open. In 2008, the U.S. Fifth Fleet warned that any Iranian attempt to close the strait would be considered an act of war.
Four years later, in 2012, Iran threatened to close the strait in response to Western sanctions imposed over its nuclear program. The pattern of escalation and counter-escalation has defined the strategic landscape around the waterway. The strait’s depth and width make it vulnerable to mining and small-boat attacks, according to the source material.
These vulnerabilities have long been factored into U.S. and allied naval planning. The narrowness of the passage—approximately 33 kilometers (21 miles) wide at its narrowest point—limits the room for maneuvering and increases the effectiveness of asymmetric tactics.
Economic Stakes Beyond Oil
Beyond crude oil, the strait is a key transit point for liquefied natural gas. About 25 percent of global LNG shipments pass through the waterway, according to the source material. The dual reliance on the strait for both oil and gas amplifies the potential economic disruption from any closure.
The EIA estimates that a closure of the strait could raise global oil prices by 30 percent to 50 percent in the short term. The figure does not account for the additional impact on natural gas markets, which would compound the economic shock.
For the administration, the strategic calculus involves weighing the costs of a potential confrontation against the risks of leaving the strait vulnerable to Iranian disruption. The U.S. Fifth Fleet remains the primary guarantor of freedom of navigation in the region. Its presence in Bahrain provides a forward operating base for monitoring and, if necessary, responding to Iranian actions in the strait.
The fleet’s capabilities include surface combatants, submarines, and aircraft capable of conducting minesweeping operations and countering small-boat swarms.
What to Watch Next
The trajectory of the current tensions depends on developments in Iran’s nuclear program and the evolution of U.S. sanctions policy. The source material indicates that as of June 2024, the risk of a confrontation in the strait had risen. Whether that risk translates into actual conflict will depend on decisions made in Tehran and Washington in the months ahead.
For now, the strait remains open, and the 17 million barrels of oil that flow through it daily continue to reach global markets. But the history of the waterway suggests that the margin for miscalculation is narrow, and the consequences of a closure would be felt worldwide within days.
