Since gaining independence in 1956, Sudan has been plagued by a persistent pattern of instability, characterized by two civil wars, a genocide in Darfur, and 20 attempted coups. The current violence, which erupted on April 15, 2023, is the latest iteration of this historical cycle, representing a power struggle between two factions of the same military government rather than a popular uprising or an ideological clash. The present conflict pits the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Hemedti.
Both leaders were partners in the 2021 coup that halted Sudan’s movement toward civilian rule. The spark for the current war was a disagreement regarding the integration of the RSF into the regular army.
When these negotiations failed, RSF units launched attacks on government installations in various cities, including Khartoum, leading to the Battle of Khartoum. The composition of the warring parties highlights a bitter irony. General Hemedti leads the RSF and the broader Janjaweed coalition—the same Arab militias responsible for the genocide in Darfur two decades ago.
The Sudanese Armed Forces, which either participated in or stood by during that genocide, are now engaged in a violent struggle against those same Janjaweed forces for control of the capital. The conflict has evolved into a complex battlefield with multiple fronts and no apparent endgame.
Beyond the primary clash between the army and the RSF, various local militias and former rebels from the peace process have joined the fray. These smaller armed groups are not neutral; they bring their own ambitions and grievances, increasing the risk that the country will fragment further. The failure of the transitional administration, established following the 2021 coup, is central to the crisis.
While the administration was intended to maintain stability and the integration of the RSF was meant to unify the military, these efforts instead provided a stage for a power struggle. The 2021 coup, which was intended to bring order, ultimately paved the way for more fighting.
The humanitarian consequences are severe and escalating. Even before the violence began in April, the region’s humanitarian situation was critical. The war has exacerbated the crisis, leading to shortages of medicine and food and forcing refugees to flee, which threatens to destabilize neighboring countries.
Ultimately, the current war is a variation of an old theme. Despite changes in uniforms and names, the underlying instability remains.
The inability to establish a lasting peace since 1956 is evidenced by the recurring nature of these conflicts. The current war serves as the latest proof of this systemic failure, as the same forces that once committed genocide now fight for control of the nation’s government.
