In a dramatic reversal of fortune, opposition forces have seized control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, just days after launching a military offensive. The city, which had been a symbol of the Syrian government’s resilience after its recapture in 2016, fell on 29 November 2024 to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied groups. The rapid collapse of pro-government forces, rather than a prolonged siege, marked the decisive factor in the city’s capture.
The offensive began on 27 November 2024 as a limited operation targeting towns in the Idlib and Aleppo countryside. The Military Operations Command, a coalition led by HTS and supported by Turkish-aligned factions within the Syrian National Army, initially planned a localized push.
However, government defensive lines crumbled almost immediately, transforming the operation into a broader campaign. Dozens of towns and villages fell in quick succession, and opposition fighters entered Aleppo within days, already controlling significant portions of the city. The speed of the advance stands out as the defining feature of this offensive.
Unlike the grinding battles that characterized earlier phases of the conflict, this campaign unfolded as a rout. Pro-government forces did not retreat in an organized manner; instead, they disintegrated.
Units dissolved, soldiers fled, and command structures failed, according to reports describing the situation as a systemic collapse rather than a tactical defeat. The opposition coalition driving the offensive differs from the fragmented groups of previous years. HTS has spent years consolidating power in Idlib, while the Syrian National Army operates under Turkish backing.
Additionally, the American-backed Syrian Free Army has launched a separate offensive in the region. Although these groups do not operate under a unified command, their simultaneous movements indicate coordinated pressure on regime forces across multiple fronts.
Aleppo holds immense strategic and symbolic importance. Its loss represents more than a military setback for the Syrian government; it constitutes a political earthquake. The administration in Damascus had projected an image of inevitable victory, with the war supposedly winding down and the regime consolidating its control. The capture of Aleppo in just two days by an opposition coalition, which many analysts had dismissed as fractured and spent, undermines that narrative.
The offensive remains ongoing, with opposition forces consolidating their gains and likely preparing to push further into regime-held territory. The regime’s military is in disarray, and its ability to mount a counterattack remains uncertain.
For years, the Syrian conflict had been locked in a stalemate, with the regime controlling major cities and the opposition holding pockets in the northwest. The capture of Aleppo marks a turning point, demonstrating that opposition forces can coordinate and execute large-scale operations while exposing the vulnerability of government armed forces. The report does not speculate on future developments but emphasizes that the regime’s hold on the rest of Syria is no longer assured.
The collapse of pro-government forces in Aleppo signals a systemic failure that cannot be resolved overnight, leaving the balance of power in Syria dramatically altered.
