TEHRAN, July 8 — The contours of power in the Middle East have sharpened into a stark and familiar geometry, with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi standing as a key figure in a region where diplomacy and brinkmanship exist side by side. For communities across Asia, from the Filipino workers in the Gulf to the economies of South and Southeast Asia that depend on stable oil prices, the actions of the men in this conflict carry weight far beyond the corridors of Tehran or Washington.
President Raisi, a hardliner who has held Iran’s presidency since August 2021, previously served as the head of the country’s judiciary from 2019 to 2021. On the other side of the table sits U.S. President Donald Trump, who took office on January 20, 2025, and has brought with him a foreign policy team that includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio, appointed that same month.
Rubio has taken a hawkish stance on Iran.
The Regional Chessboard
The dynamics are not limited to the U.S.-Iran axis. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman normalized relations with Iran in March 2023, under a deal brokered by China. That rapprochement, while fragile, reshaped the diplomatic landscape of the Gulf.
For the millions of Asian migrant workers in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the thaw meant a reduction in proxy tensions that could otherwise spill over into their daily lives. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently opposed any ceasefire with Iran, advocating instead for preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
The United Arab Emirates and Qatar have acted as intermediaries in this complex web. At the apex of Iran’s power structure sits Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has held ultimate authority since 1989. He retains final say over all nuclear and military decisions, meaning that any agreement or escalation must pass through his office.
What This Means for the Region
For families across the Philippines, Indonesia, and Bangladesh, the stability of the Gulf directly affects remittance flows and job security. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran, personified by figures like Raisi and Trump, determines whether oil prices spike or stabilize, whether shipping lanes remain open, and whether the tens of thousands of overseas Filipino workers in Iran and neighboring countries can continue their work in safety.
Closer to home, the involvement of China as a broker in the Saudi-Iran normalization deal signals Beijing’s growing diplomatic footprint in a region traditionally dominated by American influence. That shift has implications for how Asian nations navigate their own foreign policies, balancing economic ties with China against security partnerships with the United States.
The coming months will test whether the current constellation of leaders — Raisi in Tehran, Trump in Washington, Netanyahu in Jerusalem, and bin Salman in Riyadh — can find common ground or whether the region will slide into a broader confrontation. For now, the families and communities across Asia who depend on peace in the Gulf can only watch and wait.
