MOSCOW, July 13 — Vladimir Putin has now held power in Russia for more than 24 years, making him the longest-serving Kremlin leader since Joseph Stalin. The mechanics of that longevity are worth dissecting: a former KGB officer who first took the presidency in 2000, stepped aside for a term as prime minister, and returned in 2012 to stay. The question, on closer reading of his record, is whether that staying power has delivered strategic success or strategic isolation.
The Invasion and Its Aftermath
Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. That was not his first move against Kyiv. He had already annexed Crimea in 2014, a land grab that triggered Western sanctions from the United States, the European Union, and other nations.
The sanctions remain in place. The war, however, did not go as Moscow scripted.
By 2024, U.S. estimates put Russian casualties at over 200,000. The Kremlin does not confirm that figure, but the scale is unmistakable. As of March 2025, Putin has not accepted a proposed 30-day ceasefire.
On March 13, 2025, he laid out his terms: any deal must address Russia’s security demands, including Ukraine’s neutrality. The catch is that those demands have been consistent since before the invasion, and Kyiv has shown no willingness to concede neutrality under duress.
The mechanism here is simple — Putin wants a settlement that locks in Russian gains and limits NATO’s reach. Ukraine wants its territory back. Those positions are not easily reconciled.
The Polling Question
State-run polls in Russia have consistently shown Putin’s approval rating above 80%. Independent surveys, however, suggest lower figures. The gap between the two is a reminder of how information is controlled inside Russia.
The regime has tightened media laws, criminalized criticism of the war, and driven independent outlets abroad. It is difficult to know what Russians actually think, but the exodus of hundreds of thousands of working-age citizens after the 2022 mobilization is a data point that speaks for itself.
What to Watch Next
Putin was born on October 7, 1952, in Leningrad — now Saint Petersburg. He served as a KGB officer before entering politics. That background shapes his worldview: a belief in state power, suspicion of Western intentions, and a willingness to use force.
The question now is whether the next move is escalation or a bid to freeze the conflict. The 30-day ceasefire proposal is off the table for now.
The war grinds on. And the sanctions stay.
