NEW YORK, November 12, 2026 — Tech and AI-related stocks are trading roughly 10% below the record high the Nasdaq-100 set in early October, and the technical evidence suggests the selling may not be done. Fundstrat strategist Mark Newton said bearish short-term trends and a lack of trend-exhaustion signals point to continued volatility for a couple more weeks.
The Bottom Line
Stabilization in recent sessions has not convinced technical analysts that a durable bottom is in place. The figure that matters: the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, has stalled just below its late-October downtrend line, and DeMark exhaustion signals — a gauge that a trend has run its course — have yet to appear.
By The Numbers
Four primary gauges frame the debate. Tech positioning and stock correlation look encouraging; options demand is mixed; technical charts remain bearish.
Deutsche Bank data show investor exposure to technology stocks fell below the April 2025 “Liberation Day” lows last week. Strategist Parag Thatte said the selloff was driven by a forced unwinding of positions, and that positioning now sits just below the bottom of its long-run band — a level from which the sector has previously bounced. The bank remains overweight tech.
On correlation, Barclays noted that three-month realized correlation among the S&P 500’s 50 largest stocks hit a record low in late September, reflecting the dominance of stock-specific AI themes. The recent selloff lifted implied correlation expectations only modestly. Asym Research founder Rocky Fishman said the muted jump signals investors see a sector-specific event, not a broad economic downturn.
Options demand tells a split story. Retail call buying in AI stocks fell sharply last week, which Carrick Lane partner John Marshall identified as the biggest positioning shift behind the election-week decline. The one-month normalized put-call skew now sits near the middle of its 13-year range. Marshall’s take: the AI trade is no longer crowded in the short term, but the signal is not washed out enough to buy on positioning alone.
Why Technicians Stay Cautious
Newton was blunt: “You can’t have a 5% down day and close on the lows and then think the lows are in.” He sees the current pullback as a potential buying opportunity, but said that does not mean the market has officially bottomed. The rebound in the QQQ has stalled below its downtrend from late October, and bearish momentum persists without a DeMark exhaustion reading.
“We haven’t really seen evidence of the market being flushed out,” Newton said. He expects US stocks to stay volatile for a couple more weeks.
Positioning Shift And The AI Trade
Investors have been trimming tech exposure since late September, favoring other sectors. The latest catalyst was the US midterm elections, where Democrats’ strong showing revived worries about AI infrastructure spending and slower capital-expenditure growth from hyperscalers. Those concerns first surfaced in early October after cloud providers hinted at project delays, triggering a dump of CoreWeave shares and bonds.
Shares have steadied somewhat in recent sessions, partly reversing the post-election drop. CoreWeave surged 20% on November 11, helping offset broader concerns about a potential Federal Reserve rate hike next month.
Outlook
Anthropic’s initial public offering in the coming days will test Wall Street’s confidence in the AI boom. Investors will note that while positioning has cleaned up and correlation remains benign, the technical checklist is incomplete. Newton’s forecast: volatility persists for weeks.
Sources
- Trading Day: AI cheer banishes rate hike fear – AOL
- After U.S. market shake-out, signs suggest too soon to say worst is over
- After US market shake-out, signs suggest it is too soon to say worst is over
- After US market shake-out, signs suggest too soon to say worst is over – SRN News
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