In 2020 a home in a third- or fourth-tier Chinese city cost 9.5 times a household’s income. By the first half of 2025 the multiple had fallen to 7.4. For furniture and home-improvement companies squeezed in the big cities, that drop is a reason to head for the counties.
An analysis published on September 3, 2026 by 36Kr’s English edition, written by the “New Home Furnishing Paradigm” account, makes the case. First-tier markets are growing slowly, competition is brutal and the cost of attracting traffic keeps climbing, it says. County-level markets, by contrast, show stronger spending resilience, with expenditure growth well ahead of the largest cities. Cheaper housing matters here: owning a home is, in the article’s words, a “precondition” for renovation spending. Moving down the tiers, it argues, has gone from an option to a strategic must.
The size of the prize
China has more than 1,800 counties. Their urban districts and towns hold around 450 million permanent residents, nearly a third of the country’s urban population. Economic output in these places grew from 30 trillion yuan in 2020 to 54 trillion yuan in 2024, close to 40% of national GDP. The article also cites a McKinsey forecast that by 2030 these so-called sinking markets will supply over 66% of China’s incremental personal consumption.
Size alone does not produce sales, the piece cautions. Revenue comes from concrete needs: housing renewal, partial renovation, whole-house customization and soft furnishing upgrades. Each calls for a different approach depending on the kind of county.
What county shoppers want
The analysis leans on the 2025 Black Ant Capital Consumer Trend Research Report, which it summarizes in four points.
Shoppers are moving from “external prestige” toward “internal substance”. The pull of a middle-class identity label is fading. Families, especially those with children, put more value on home as a place for emotional bonds. Spending is “folded”: the same consumer may buy a “9.9-yuan eyeshadow” and a “15,000-yuan gold bracelet” in one season, cutting hidden costs while keeping up appearances where it shows. And daily life is steady but tight, with high home ownership, low loan ratios and households that tend to live together. That stability, the article notes, also means new ideas spread slowly.
Some numbers from the report sketch the habits behind this. The share of surveyed residents using content e-commerce channels to discover products rose from 54.4% in 2022 to 62.4% in 2025. Rural online retail sales reached 2.56 trillion yuan in 2024, 17% of the national total. And 64% of county-level women earn less than 35,000 yuan a year, a fact the article uses to argue for small, certain upgrades such as reading nooks and storage corners rather than big-ticket redesigns.
Where the openings are
The author sees stores turning into “experience spaces” that combine design advice, lifestyle displays and light social functions, rather than plain sales floors. Content platforms and nearby, good-value shops matter more than large malls. Product lines should pair solid basic models, aimed at buyers who want “upgrading without price increase”, with a few standout pieces for the “gold bracelet” end.
One warning stands out. Chain expansion can backfire in categories that depend on heavy customization, on-site service and local technicians, such as complex partial renovation and old-house work. Franchising or partnering with local service providers is the better route there, the article says.
The county market, it concludes, is not a “low-end version” of the first tier. It has its own logic, and brands that treat it as one will miss it.
