WASHINGTON, November 12, 2026 — Existing-home sales decreased 5.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million in October, the lowest level since August 2010. The bottom line is that high mortgage rates and low inventory are driving this decline.
Structural Factors Driving the Decline
The decline in existing-home sales can be attributed to several structural factors, including rising mortgage rates and a scarcity of affordable inventory. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 7.33% in October, its highest mark since 2000. According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, “Home buying is difficult when mortgage rates have climbed to their highest levels since 2000, aside from a single month in 2023.” This rate lock-in effect prevents homeowners from selling, as they are hesitant to give up their current low-rate mortgages.
Inventory Scarcity and Affordability Constraints
Inventory scarcity is another factor limiting buyer choices across regions. Unsold inventory increased 1.3% to 1.59 million units, equal to a 5.1-month supply. This scarcity, combined with elevated mortgage rates, has led to affordability constraints, keeping first-time buyers sidelined. The first-time buyer share was 29% in October, down from 31% in September and 32% a year ago. As Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, noted, “waiting for rates is a very dangerous game, because you just look at what happened.”
Regional Disparities and Outlook
Sales declined in the West, South, and Midwest regions, with the West hitting a record low and the Midwest and South falling to decade lows. The Northeast region was the only exception, with sales holding steady month-over-month. The outlook depends on potential mortgage rate relief, with some experts predicting that rates will remain near multi-year highs through 2026. As Hepp said, “Our narrative is changing, and we’re saying, ‘Hey, higher for longer.’ In fact, you’re probably not going to see low 6s next year.” The figure that matters is the 5.1-month supply of unsold inventory, the highest level since November 2015. By the numbers, the decline in existing-home sales is a significant indicator of the current state of the housing market. Investors will note that the median existing-home price increased 0.4% to $416,700, despite the sales slump.
Sources
- New home sales
- Existing-Home Sales Decreased 5.5% in October, According to NAR Report
- US existing home sales slump to more than 16-year low in October
- Existing home sales haven’t been this slow since 2010
- Existing Home Sales Fell to 16-Year Low
- Existing-home sales fall to their lowest level since 2010
Photo: ASG Consulting / Unsplash (Unsplash License)
