“The year started with a clear consensus that inflation was drifting back toward target, rates were coming down, and the economy was on steady footing,” said James Fox, Co-CEO and Managing Partner at Ninepoint Partners. Then came the conflict in the Middle East. “It changed that almost overnight,” he said.
Ninepoint Partners LP, which calls itself one of Canada’s leading independent investment management firms, released its 2026 Mid-Year Market Outlook on June 17. Portfolio managers lay out where they see the best opportunities for the second half of the year. The report covers fixed income, energy, metals and mining, gold equities, silver equities, infrastructure and digital assets.
Co-CEO and Managing Partner John Wilson pointed to how fast conditions turned. “That’s why active management matters,” he said. Equity markets have held up despite the global uncertainty, he said, helped by AI and data centre investment, demand for metals and critical minerals, and sovereignty over critical infrastructure. For the months ahead, Wilson said, the question is how investors position portfolios for “a much less predictable environment.”
What each section says
Fixed income. Energy, AI spending and tariffs are pushing up inflation, and Ninepoint says that has moved the U.S. rate conversation from cuts to upside risk. The firm is staying low duration. It expects record new issuance in credit markets to keep widening spreads.
Energy. Ninepoint argues that energy equities do not yet reflect the cash flow producers could earn if oil prices stay high once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. It sees a meaningful gap between current valuations and fundamentals.
Global equities. The firm expects momentum to carry into the second half on AI capital spending and strong earnings. Earnings, it says, remain the main driver of returns despite macroeconomic stress.
Metals and mining. Governments are securing supply chains, building strategic stockpiles and investing in defence, and that is supporting demand for critical minerals and industrial metals. Ninepoint finds silver equities attractively valued and believes the multi-year bull cycle for gold is intact.
Infrastructure. Electrification of the global economy and new projects pursued for national security should drive years of above-trend spending, in Canada and elsewhere.
Digital assets. Ninepoint believes crypto has moved from speculative technology to financial infrastructure. Banks, asset managers, exchanges and payment networks were once its loudest skeptics, the firm says, and are now among its biggest adopters.
The release was issued as a correction on June 17 through GLOBE NEWSWIRE, after the links to the outlook were updated.
