For a second straight day, Ukraine launched waves of drone strikes deep inside Russian territory, setting a Rosneft oil refinery ablaze in Ryazan Oblast and prompting air defenses to scramble near a major fuel facility outside St. Petersburg. The attacks mark an escalation in Kyiv’s campaign to hit Russian energy infrastructure far from the front lines.
Russian officials reported that a Ukrainian drone was shot down near the Kirishi oil refinery in Leningrad Oblast, roughly 700 kilometers north of the border. The Kirishi plant is one of the largest refineries in northwestern Russia. In Ryazan, about 200 kilometers southeast of Moscow, a drone strike ignited a fire at the Rosneft refinery there. Regional governor Pavel Malkov said emergency crews were working to contain the blaze, but did not specify the extent of damage. Ukrainian officials have not publicly claimed responsibility, though Kyiv has repeatedly stated it views strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities as legitimate military targets that help fund Moscow’s war effort.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at a televised meeting, accused Ukraine of trying to disrupt the country’s upcoming presidential election, scheduled for March 15-17. “The enemy is trying to interfere in our internal political life, to sow panic and undermine the legitimacy of the election process,” Putin said. He offered no evidence linking the drone strikes to the election, but the remarks fit a familiar Kremlin narrative that frames domestic unrest and battlefield setbacks as part of a Western plot against Russian sovereignty. The election is widely expected to hand Putin another six-year term, with all major opposition candidates either jailed, exiled, or barred from running.
The strikes follow a pattern of Ukrainian long-range drone operations that have grown in frequency and sophistication since late 2023. Ukraine has increasingly targeted Russian oil depots, refineries, and storage facilities, aiming to disrupt fuel supplies to the Russian military and reduce Moscow’s revenue from energy exports. The Ryazan and Kirishi refineries are both critical nodes in Russia’s domestic fuel network. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, have noted that such strikes are part of a broader Ukrainian effort to degrade Russia’s war-fighting capacity without using Western-supplied long-range missiles, which Washington has restricted from hitting targets inside Russia.
The Biden administration has publicly discouraged Ukraine from striking Russian territory with U.S.-provided weapons, but has not prohibited Kyiv from using its own domestically produced drones for such missions. The United States has provided over $75 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022, including air defense systems, artillery, and long-range missiles like ATACMS, which have been used in Crimea and occupied Ukrainian territory. A senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters last week that Washington continues to calibrate its support to help Ukraine defend itself while avoiding a direct confrontation with Moscow.
The drone campaign also underscores the growing role of Iran in the conflict. Russia has relied heavily on Iranian-designed Shahed-136 one-way attack drones, which it now manufactures under license at a facility in Tatarstan. Iran’s government, widely regarded as a hostile actor by the U.S. and its allies, has supplied Moscow with thousands of drones and is reportedly helping Russia build its own production line. U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stated in January that the Biden administration has “documented evidence” of Iranian drone transfers to Russia, violating United Nations Security Council resolutions. Tehran denies the allegations, but independent investigators and satellite imagery have confirmed the presence of Iranian drone components in Ukraine.
As the election approaches, Putin faces the delicate task of projecting strength at home while the war grinds into its third year. The drone strikes, though unlikely to alter the election’s outcome, serve as a reminder that the conflict shows no signs of containment. For Ukraine, hitting Russian oil infrastructure is both a tactical move and a strategic message: that the war will continue to reach deep into Russian territory, regardless of the political calendar in Moscow. Whether this pressure can shift the dynamics on the battlefield or at the negotiating table remains an open question, one that will depend heavily on continued Western support and Ukraine’s ability to sustain its long-range strike capability.
