DUBLIN, June 29 — Ireland could see rents climb by an additional €250 a year by 2031, a rise linked directly to air tourism, according to new analysis from Transport & Environment, the European clean transport advocacy group. The catch is that this figure sits on top of any other rent increases. The study, conducted by the New Economics Foundation, warns that rising rents will “primarily affect lower-income households.” It looked only at data for formal accommodation such as hotels, because data for informal rentals is limited.
The report itself notes that if the rise in nights spent in informal accommodation — such as Airbnb — were considered, “the growth rates would likely be higher still.” More tourists flying in means more demand for places to stay. T&E found that despite widespread “anti-tourism protests” in some popular destinations, the number of tourists arriving by air continues to rise.
Ireland is expected to see the largest rent increase of any country studied, at €250 per year. The aviation sector is responsible for an estimated 52% of the global tourism industry’s direct emissions, according to the report, and much of the sector’s emissions growth. In Europe, emissions from international tourist arrivals by air are projected to rise over 60% between 2016 and 2030.
T&E is now calling for a new EU Sustainable Tourism Strategy. The group wants a focus on reducing international air arrivals in saturated regions and a wider analysis of the impacts of air tourism.
It warned that Ireland and other countries are expanding air travel, with €12.9bn committed by the Spanish — the source cuts off there. Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal are among other European countries facing what T&E calls an “unaffordable housing crisis.” On closer reading, the study’s limitation is worth noting: it only captures formal accommodation data. That means the real pressure on housing stock — including rentals diverted to short-term tourist lets — is almost certainly understated.
The €250 figure for Ireland may be just the tip of the iceberg.
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