Two co-CEOs at Ninepoint Partners LP gave the same message on June 17 from different angles: the first half of 2026 punished anyone who assumed a calm market.
James Fox described the plan that fell apart. “The year started with a clear consensus that inflation was drifting back toward target, rates were coming down, and the economy was on steady footing,” he said. “The conflict in the Middle East changed that almost overnight, with both advisors and investors re-assessing where the real opportunities are and what risks exist.”
John Wilson pointed to the lesson. “What this first half demonstrated, again, is how quickly the market backdrop can change,” he said, adding that the geopolitical climate made it more so. “That’s why active management matters.”
Wilson said markets have still held up. Equities, he said, have been supported by AI and data centre investment, demand for metals and critical minerals, and sovereignty over critical infrastructure. As for the rest of the year: “the question is how investors position portfolios for a much less predictable environment.”
Their comments came with the firm’s 2026 Mid-Year Market Outlook. Ninepoint, which calls itself one of Canada’s leading independent investment management firms, released the report to give its portfolio managers’ views on the best second-half opportunities. Fixed income, energy, metals and mining, gold equities, silver equities, infrastructure and digital assets are all covered.
Highlights from the report
Inflation pressure from energy, AI spending and tariffs has moved the U.S. rate conversation from cuts to upside risk, Ninepoint says. It stays low duration.
Global equities should keep their momentum on AI capital spending and strong earnings. Energy equities, in the firm’s view, do not yet reflect what producers could earn if oil stays high after the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Ninepoint also sees attractive silver valuations and an intact multi-year gold bull cycle. On digital assets, it says banks, asset managers, exchanges and payment networks, once crypto’s loudest skeptics, are now its biggest adopters.
The release carried a correction notice: the links to the outlook had been updated.
