The figure that matters: 54%
Chip stocks now explain about 54% of the differences in performance across a range of assets over the previous three weeks. Oil explains 2%. That comparison comes from Goldman Sachs, whose analysts wrote on Monday that “tech has become an increasingly important driver of risk appetite.”
The bottom line: the week of November 2 to 6 will show whether that anchor holds.
It arrives after a rough stretch. On Friday Intel warned that sluggish personal computer sales would crimp its fourth-quarter results, and the stock fell 28.6% to close at 65.76. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks the 30 largest chip stocks traded in the U.S., dropped 7.2% with it. Goldman says its gauge of investor willingness to take risks fell last week to its lowest level since April 2025, as selling spread through technology stocks and corporate bonds. Its analysts called the memory-sector worries a “broad-based derisking.” Investors will note they have not yet seen the levels that, historically, marked a buying opportunity.
Memory chips and the 2030 question
Just before the slide, memory stocks had a good Wednesday. Micron rose 5.86% and SanDisk 7.66%. SK Hynix lit the fuse by forecasting that memory demand could outpace supply through 2030.
Its third-quarter numbers were hard to argue with. Revenue hit a record 104.6 trillion won ($78.9 billion), up 328% from a year earlier, and operating profit jumped 632% to 83.3 trillion won. More than half of its 2027 and 2028 capacity is already committed under long-term agreements. Micron has more than 75% of its fiscal 2027 shipments committed, plus 26 strategic customer agreements covering supply through 2030. TrendForce expects NAND contract prices to rise 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter, and DRAM prices 10% to 15%.
Then Thursday. Microsoft and Alphabet both reported quarterly capital spending below analyst estimates, and Samsung’s chip profit missed forecasts. Micron and SanDisk each slipped more than 3% in premarket trading, with SanDisk due to report after the close.
Apple, AMD and Arm report
Apple goes first, on November 2, with results for the July to September 2026 quarter. Beyond iPhone and services revenue, its outlook for October to December, the year-end shopping season, will color how the market values smartphone-related stocks.
AMD follows on November 3. Because it reports after a sharp fall in U.S. chip shares, the numbers carry extra weight: data center revenue, including the “Instinct” AI GPUs and “EPYC” server CPUs, will show how much AI spending is turning into actual sales. Arm reports on November 4. Royalties on its chip design technology and sales forecasts for its “Arm AGI CPU” for data centers drive its growth, and its share price also moves the value of the stake held by SoftBank Group.
All three report after the U.S. close, so Japan sees the results the next morning. Tokyo’s exchange is shut on November 3 for Culture Day; U.S. markets trade as normal.
Jobs data on Friday
The October jobs report lands on November 6. Payrolls, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings will tell traders how resilient the economy is. Strong hiring and wages could push U.S. interest rates up, which weighs on the dollar-yen rate and on high-PER stocks. A sharp drop in employment would feed recession worries instead.
Targets and valuations
Year to date, NVIDIA is up 16.58%, Micron 240.82% and TSMC 45.35%. At $216.92, NVIDIA trades at about 14x fiscal 2028 estimates. A move to $350 would put it near 22x, close to the S&P 500’s 21x to 23x, which is modest for a company expecting revenue growth of approximately 70% next year. Micron, at 5x forward earnings, would sit near 10x at $1,800. TSMC’s 19x forward P/E would rise to about 26x at $600. Capex from the top five hyperscalers is expected to reach $1.3 trillion in 2027.
Goldman stays modestly bullish on equities through year-end, citing strong earnings, lighter positioning and lower valuations. It cut its 12-month Kospi target from 12,000 to 9,000, which it says still implies more than 60% upside, and estimates that South Korean stocks outside memory chips are more than 30% undervalued relative to their profitability. The Kospi has fallen roughly 40% from its June peak.
Apple reports first, on November 2, after the closing bell.
Sources
- US Jobs Report and Earnings from Apple, AMD, and Arm: Will Semiconductor Stocks Rebound? [November 2–6]｜アセットアライブ
- Starboard Value
- A Memory Shortage Until 2030? Why Semiconductor Stocks Are Rallying Again
- If AI Spending Slows in 2027, These Semiconductor Stocks Could Hold Up Best
- The AI trade is driving global markets more than oil, Goldman Sachs says
- Chip Stocks Plunge After Intel's Q4 Warning
Photo: Harland Quarrington (OGL v1.0)
