Low-income households across Ireland will be the first to feel the squeeze when air tourism drives rents up by a projected €250 annually by 2031. That figure sits on top of whatever other rent increases already hit tenants. The European clean transport group Transport & Environment commissioned the analysis, which the New Economics Foundation carried out.
It is not a small number. It is a 2031 target, and the clock is ticking.
The study only examined formal accommodation — hotels and the like — because data on informal rentals is patchy. The report itself admits that if nights spent in Airbnb-type stays were included, the growth rates would be higher. Likely much higher.
Ireland faces the largest rent increase of any country studied. That is not an accident.
More tourists flying in means more bodies hunting for beds. Landlords respond to demand. The aviation sector accounts for 52% of global tourism’s direct emissions, according to the same report.
And emissions from international tourist arrivals by air in Europe are projected to rise over 60% between 2016 and 2030. The two trends — rising flights and rising rents — are not separate. They are the same story.
Anti-tourism protests have broken out in some popular destinations. Tourists keep coming anyway.
T&E found the number of air arrivals continues climbing. Ireland is not alone. Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal all face what T&E calls an unaffordable housing crisis.
The Spanish have committed €12.9bn to expanding air travel — the report’s text cuts off there, but the direction is clear. Governments are doubling down on aviation even as housing costs spiral.
Transport & Environment is now calling for a new EU Sustainable Tourism Strategy. The group wants to reduce international air arrivals in saturated regions. It wants a wider analysis of how air tourism hits local communities.
The word “saturated” matters. It suggests some places have already passed a tipping point. The study’s limitation is worth noting.
It only looked at formal accommodation data. That means the true picture for renters — especially those in cities where Airbnb has hollowed out residential stock — is almost certainly worse.
The report says so itself. But the headline figure of €250 a year is already stark. It is a floor, not a ceiling.
For a household already spending half its income on rent, an extra €250 is not abstract. It is a choice between heat and food.
It is a move to a cheaper suburb, a longer commute, a smaller flat. The people hit hardest are those with the least ability to absorb the cost. The report names them plainly: lower-income households.
No one is saying tourism is bad. But the analysis draws a direct line from airport expansion to rent hikes. The line runs through supply and demand.
More tourists need somewhere to sleep. Landlords see an opportunity.
Tenants pay the price. It is simple economics, but the consequences are not simple at all. Ireland is projected to see the biggest rent jump of any European country studied. €250 a year by 2031.
That is on top of everything else. And the data that exists likely understates the problem.
The report is clear about that. The question is whether anyone will act before the number gets worse.
