“This study proves we cannot separate the anti-tourism protests on the ground from the surge of flights arriving overhead.” So says Denise Auclair, head of Transport & Environment’s Travel Smart Campaign, and the group’s new analysis gives her a number to point to for Ireland: €250 a year.
That is the extra rent T&E expects Irish tenants could face by 2031 because of air tourism, outside any other rent increases. The New Economics Foundation carried out the study. Ireland, the group said, is set to see the highest absolute rise of any country covered. “Ireland is expected to see the largest rise, facing a rent increase of €250 per year,” the study found.
The warning lands while the Dáil continues to discuss legislation to remove the passenger cap at Dublin Airport.
Who pays? Mostly people with the least room to manage it. The study found that rising rents will “primarily affect lower-income households”.
A cautious estimate
The researchers used data only for formal accommodation, such as hotels, because figures for other tourist lodging are limited. That probably understates things. “If the rise in nights spent in informal accommodation, such as Airbnb, were considered, the growth rates would likely be higher still,” the report warned.
Elsewhere in Europe the picture is similar. T&E highlighted Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal as countries facing an “unaffordable housing crisis”, and said popular destinations in Spain and Greece face spiralling rents. It noted that “anti-tourism protests” have not slowed the number of visitors arriving by air.
Emissions and expansion
The aviation sector is responsible for an estimated 52% of the global tourism industry’s direct emissions and much of the sector’s emissions growth, the report said. In Europe, emissions from international tourist arrivals by air are projected to rise over 60% between 2016 and 2030.
Governments keep building. The Spanish government committed €12.9bn last year to boost air travel, according to T&E. Athens is rolling out a €1.3bn expansion to lift annual passenger capacity by 25%, and terminal expansions are under way in Lisbon.
Auclair called the strategy of “trying to manage tourism overcrowding while simultaneously expanding airports in Dublin, Barcelona, or Lisbon” a “losing battle”. She urged governments to put an “immediate stop” to airport expansions and reconsider tourism and transport connectivity if they are serious about affordable housing and climate targets.
T&E is asking for a new EU Sustainable Tourism Strategy that would focus on cutting international air arrivals in saturated regions, plus a wider analysis of air tourism’s effects. Most economic impact assessments in aviation, it said, fail to count effects on property and rent prices, even where those are at the top of the political agenda. The study added that overlooking how much air traffic growth drives overtourism will lead to a narrow and inefficient government response.
