TEHRAN — The memory of March 20, 2025, still hangs over global energy markets, when former President Trump’s announcement of a 20 percent toll on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz sent crude prices climbing sharply. Brent crude futures rose 3.5 percent to $82 per barrel that day, while West Texas Intermediate climbed 3.8 percent to $78 per barrel, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange. The figures, now several months old, remain a reference point for analysts watching the region’s chokepoint.
The 20 percent levy on cargo could increase shipping costs by an estimated $0.50 to $1.00 per barrel, based on average tanker rates of $50,000 per day for a Very Large Crude Carrier carrying 2 million barrels. For liquefied natural gas, the picture is similar.
Spot LNG prices in Asia, measured by the Japan Korea Marker, stood at $12 per million British thermal units on March 20, up 2 percent on the day. LNG tankers, which charter for $100,000 per day, face rising costs. The Strait of Hormuz handled 17 million barrels per day of oil in 2024, according to data.
The global oil market consumed about 102 million barrels per day that same year. A prolonged disruption at the strait could push prices to $100 per barrel, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
The account indicates that the toll’s impact extends well beyond crude.
Exposed Consumers in Asia
Major consumers in Asia are the most exposed to any sustained disruption. China imported 11.3 million barrels per day in 2023, the largest figure among the region’s economies. India imported 4.5 million barrels per day, while Japan and South Korea imported 3.2 million and 3.0 million barrels per day, respectively.
These four nations rely heavily on the strait for their energy lifelines. The regional history of the strait as a flashpoint is well known.
Iran has long asserted its position along this waterway, and previous confrontations have sent tremors through global markets. The current toll, announced by the Trump administration, adds a new layer of cost and uncertainty.
Looking Ahead
What to watch next is whether the toll remains in place and how shipping companies adjust their routes and insurance costs. The estimated $0.50 to $1.00 per barrel increase in shipping costs may seem modest, but for a market consuming over 100 million barrels daily, the cumulative effect is significant. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have flagged the $100 per barrel threshold as a realistic scenario if the disruption proves prolonged.
For now, the figures from March 20, 2025, serve as a baseline for what could come.
