Boeing shares have fallen 14.99%, from $221.56 to $188.35, since the last earnings report. That happened in a stretch when the company got most of what it wanted. The FAA certified the 737-10 on Oct. 20, the Navy picked Boeing for the F/A-XX fighter, and a new labor contract removed strike risk. Third-quarter results arrive Oct. 27, and the question is whether any of that turns into cash.
Analysts are moving the other way
The consensus Q3 loss per share has widened from $0.1111 to $0.201 over 90 days. In the past month there were nine downward revisions and none upward. For 2027, the consensus EPS estimate of $3.7573 has already slid from $4.1043 over the same period.
Last quarter’s numbers set the baseline. Revenue rose 8.0% to $24.56 billion and deliveries climbed 14% to 171 planes. Core EPS came in at -$0.76, against a consensus of -$0.34. Free cash flow turned positive at $631 million, compared with -$200 million a year earlier, and backlog hit a record $715 billion.
Cash flow and debt
Free cash flow is the figure that matters most. In July management guided Q3 free cash flow to the positive “low hundreds of millions,” even after a $700 million payment to the Department of Justice, and kept the full-year range at $1 billion to $3 billion. Debt stands at $45.9 billion and costs roughly $600 million in interest each quarter.
The 737 line
The 737-10 makes up more than 30% of the 737 MAX order book. Customers have ordered 7,350 MAX jets, and nearly 2,500 had been delivered by September 2026. Certification opens a path to a backlog of more than 1,500 orders for the type. The 737-10 flight test program logged nearly 1,000 flights and over 2,000 flight hours. The jet typically seats 185 to 210 passengers and flies up to 3,100 nautical miles, and Boeing cites a 20% cut in CO2 emissions and fuel use.
Production is moving to 47 jets a month, with 52 planned for the Everett North Line, aimed at 500 737 deliveries in 2026. Management has named wings as an internal weak spot as rates climb, so investors will want an update there. Margins are the other test. Commercial Airplanes posted a negative 2.7% operating margin last quarter, while 737 and 787 cash margins were “slightly above breakeven.” The report needs to show that higher volume is covering fixed costs.
Defense and the 787
Defense needs a cleaner quarter. A $280 million charge on the VC-25B program pushed the division to a $15 million operating loss last time. On the 787, GE engine deliveries were expected to resume in the third quarter, though seat certifications could keep deliveries “a little bit lumpy.”
CEO Kelly Ortberg was blunt in July. “I can’t claim victory yet,” he said.
Sources
- Is Boeing Cleared for Departure? Latest FAA Win Sets the Stage for Q3 Earnings Showdown on Oct. 27
- Boeing
- FAA certifies Boeing 737-10
Photo: Sixflashphoto (CC BY-SA 4.0)
