Headline inflation in the Philippines probably landed between 1.7% and 2.5% in March 2025, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said on Monday. At the top of that range, prices would have picked up from the 2.1% of February. At the bottom, inflation would have dipped below 2% for the first time since the 1.9% reading of September 2024.
Either way, the figure would come in below the 3.7% recorded in March 2024. A BusinessWorld poll of 18 analysts the week before gave a median estimate of 2%. The official March data was due on April 4.
Power and fish push up
“Upward price pressures for the month emanate from higher electricity rates and higher prices for fish and meat,” the BSP said in a statement.
Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) raised its overall rate by P0.2639 per kilowatt-hour in March, to P12.2901 from P12.0262 in February. The Philippine Statistics Authority put the price of a kilo of round scad (galunggong) at an average of PHP 235.26 in early March, up from PHP 226.43 a month before. Fresh pork belly (liempo) climbed to PHP 384.08 per kilo from PHP 375.02.
Rice and vegetables push down
The BSP expected those increases to be offset by cheaper rice, fruits and vegetables, helped by favorable domestic supply and a stronger peso.
Rice prices have been trending down on government intervention and lower global prices. Rice inflation in February slowed to 4.9% from a 2.3% drop in January. The government had cut tariffs on rice imports to 15% from July 2024, and the Department of Agriculture (DA) declared a food security emergency on rice, which let the National Food Authority release buffer stocks at subsidized prices. From March 1, the DA lowered the maximum suggested retail price of 5% broken imported rice to PHP 49 per kilo from PHP 52. It fell again to PHP 45 per kilo from March 31.
Policy outlook
The BSP’s baseline inflation forecast is 3.5% for both 2025 and 2026, and with risks accounted for, inflation could reach 3.7% in 2026. The bank held its key rate at 5.75% the month before, citing global trade uncertainties. Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has said the bank remains in an easing cycle, which points to a possible 25-basis-point cut at the Monetary Board meeting on April 10.
“Going forward, the Monetary Board will continue to take a measured approach in ensuring price stability conducive to balanced and sustainable growth of the economy and employment,” the BSP said.
