The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has created a severe threat to global food supplies, with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization issuing a stark warning on March 12. Together, these two nations supply approximately one-third of all grain traded internationally, a concentration that leaves importing countries extremely exposed to disruption.
Developing nations across northern Africa, Asia, and the Middle East face the most immediate danger, according to the FAO. These countries rely heavily on imported wheat, barley, and corn to feed their populations, and their primary suppliers are now at war. The situation is particularly acute for Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, which sources much of its grain from the Black Sea region.
Other vulnerable nations include Lebanon, Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. The crisis did not emerge from a stable baseline.
International food and input prices were already elevated before the invasion, the FAO report notes. The conflict has accelerated an existing problem, transforming a gradual crisis into an urgent one. The mechanism is straightforward: fighting prevents Ukrainian farmers from planting and harvesting, while sanctions and war damage block Russian exports from reaching ports.
Global supply contracts, prices rise, and importing countries must either pay more or face shortages. The disruption extends beyond grain production.
Russia is the world’s leading fertilizer producer, and fertilizer is essential for maintaining high crop yields. The price of urea, a key fertilizer ingredient, has more than tripled over the past twelve months. While this increase began before the war, the conflict will drive prices even higher, reducing agricultural output worldwide.
Export restrictions compound the problem. The FAO warned that countries such as the United States and Argentina are likely to limit their own grain exports to protect domestic food supplies.
While this protects their own populations, it reduces the number of sellers available to importing nations already struggling to find alternatives to Black Sea grain. FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu stated that disruptions to agricultural activities in these two major producers will hit hardest in places already facing difficulties. The war began in late February, and by mid-March the FAO was already raising alarms. The planting season in Ukraine was approaching, with fields that should be sown with wheat and barley at risk of remaining empty.
Black Sea ports that typically load grain ships are blocked or damaged. The world has experienced food price spikes before.
The 2007-2008 crisis, driven by poor harvests, rising oil prices, and export bans, triggered riots in more than thirty countries. The current situation involves sharper triggers: a war between two major grain suppliers, a fertilizer shortage, and a cascade of export restrictions. The FAO report does not predict famine but warns of a serious escalation in global hunger, meaning more people will face malnutrition and governments in fragile states will confront pressures they cannot easily manage.
