Nike said on a June 30 earnings call that it expected to collect nearly $1 billion in tariff refunds. The stock bounced for a moment and then slid back. That is the pattern Bloomberg described in a report published on September 9, 2026: money is finally flowing back to American companies after the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and Wall Street has barely noticed.
The comparison that stings is the one with April 2025. When the tariffs were announced, the S&P 500 had its worst day in five years. Nike fell 14% on April 3, 2025, the day after Liberation Day, to its lowest level since November 2017. Starbucks dropped 11%, its biggest decline since May 2024. The refunds have not come close to winning that back.
Cash in, shares flat
The Supreme Court ruled in February that levies imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal. By the end of July, roughly $100 billion had been sent to the US Treasury for disbursement, according to data from US Customs and Border Protection. Bloomberg Intelligence counted 88 companies that discussed refunds in the most recent quarter, with receipts estimated at no less than $15 billion.
The recipients include Target, Walmart, Nike, Starbucks and Caterpillar, along with Applied Optoelectronics. Most are in import-heavy lines such as retail, industrials and electronic hardware.
Starbucks shares rose just 1.6% after its third-quarter results, which showed refunds offsetting other tariffs the company had paid during the fiscal year. Best Buy did worse. Its stock tumbled even after it raised its full-year outlook, because much of the improvement came from a $34 million tariff refund and investors doubted it would repeat.
What the analysts said
“There’s little reaction now because the markets and analysts priced this in when the ruling came out,” said Eric Sterner, chief investment officer at Apollon Wealth.
Marshall Front, chief investment officer at Front Barnett, was blunter. “These are non-recurring, they’re not operating revenue and investors will discount that,” he said. “Sure, it’s free money but it’s not likely to happen again.”
Simeon Siegel, who covers Nike for Guggenheim Securities, said a refund “is no different than the company winning a lottery ticket.” In his words, it “doesn’t make the business a better business, it just gives it more cash.” What matters far more, he argued, is what future tariffs will look like.
Torsten Slok of Apollo Management expects some of the money to go to dividends and buybacks, and some to spending on areas such as AI.
New duties keep arriving
The refunds are landing while fresh tariffs pile up. A trade dispute between the US and Canada flared again in recent weeks, with Canada imposing tariffs of up to 50% on hundreds of US products after a similar US move the month before. Other new or threatened measures include a 50% tax on roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, 15% tariffs on imported polysilicon used in semiconductors, and a 10% to 12.5% levy on most major trading partners under a forced labor investigation. Trump has also pledged to double duties on Canadian vehicles and parts after talks between the two countries broke down.
Peter Keith, an analyst at Piper Sandler, said the Street is giving little credit to big earnings beats built on refunds. His reason: “It helps 2026, but there’s no impact in 2027.”
