Rents in Ireland could climb by €250 a year by 2031 because of air tourism, on top of any other increases, according to a new analysis from Transport & Environment (T&E). The group, which describes itself as Europe’s leading advocacy organization for clean transport and energy, says Ireland would see the highest absolute rise of any country in the study.
“Ireland is expected to see the largest rise, facing a rent increase of €250 per year,” the analysis found.
The timing matters locally. The Dáil is still debating legislation to remove the passenger cap at Dublin Airport.
What the study covered
The New Economics Foundation carried out the research. It found that rising rents will “primarily affect lower-income households.” It also found that the number of tourists arriving by air keeps growing even with widespread “anti-tourism protests” in some popular destinations.
One limit applies to the figures. The authors looked only at formal accommodation such as hotels, because little data exists on other kinds of tourist lodging. “If the rise in nights spent in informal accommodation, such as Airbnb, were considered, the growth rates would likely be higher still,” the report warned.
Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal were singled out as countries facing an “unaffordable housing crisis.” Spain and Greece’s popular tourist spots face spiralling rents and a worsening environmental toll from air tourism, the research found.
Emissions and airport growth
The report puts aviation at an estimated 52% of the global tourism industry’s direct emissions and responsible for much of the sector’s emissions growth. In Europe, it projects that emissions from international tourist arrivals by air will rise by more than 60% between 2016 and 2030.
Governments are expanding capacity, T&E said. The Spanish government committed €12.9bn last year to boost air travel. Athens is rolling out a €1.3bn expansion to raise annual passenger capacity by 25%, and terminal work is under way in Lisbon.
Denise Auclair, head of T&E’s Travel Smart Campaign, said the findings link two things often treated separately. “This study proves we cannot separate the anti-tourism protests on the ground from the surge of flights arriving overhead,” she said. “Trying to manage tourism overcrowding while simultaneously expanding airports in Dublin, Barcelona, or Lisbon is a losing battle.”
She urged governments to halt airport expansions immediately and rethink tourism and transport strategies if they are serious about affordable housing and climate targets.
T&E is also asking for a new EU Sustainable Tourism Strategy that would aim to cut international air arrivals in saturated regions and examine air tourism’s effects more widely. Most economic impact assessments in aviation ignore effects on property and rent prices, the group said, even where those effects top the political agenda. According to the study, a failure to see how far air traffic growth fuels overtourism will produce a narrow and inefficient government response.
