Smucker earned $3.24 a share last quarter. Analysts had expected $2.22, so the packaged-food maker beat the forecast by $1.02, or 45%. The stock jumped about 12% on the news and is up 34% for 2026.
Look closer and the headline shrinks. The quarter, the first of Smucker’s 2027 fiscal year, included a one-time benefit of 84 cents a share from tariff refunds. Without it, the beat was about 26%. Still strong, though some analysts question whether it can be repeated in coming quarters.
Consumer staples were meant to be dead money this year, with investors chasing artificial intelligence instead. A few have done fine anyway. Coca-Cola is up 26% in 2026 as of Sept. 1, more than double the gain in the S&P 500. Smucker has beaten that.
Price, not volume
Revenue came in at $2.22 billion. Forecasts were for $2.13 billion, and the figure was 5% above the $2.11 billion booked a year earlier.
The company said the growth came mostly from pricing rather than the number of items sold. Higher coffee prices alone accounted for more than 4% of the increase. Many staples makers face the same squeeze, and it is not a promising sign for long-term demand. Smucker’s own full-year guidance admits as much: net sales are expected to fall 1% to 2%.
The balance sheet
So why are analysts still lifting their price targets? The answer sits in the debt. Smucker brought its leverage down to 2.9 times from 3.8 times a year ago, ahead of schedule. That frees up cash flow and leaves room for possible share buybacks.
It also raised its quarterly dividend to $1.12 per share, the 27th straight year of increases.
