The Numbers From the Board
The scene, in early 2023, was waterlogged groves and emptying tanks. Data issued by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board on March 10, 2023 showed end-February inventories tumbling to their lowest point in half a year, as Reuters reported from Kuala Lumpur, with both production and imports sinking alongside them.
From January, stockpiles dropped 6.56 per cent to 2.12 million tonnes, a level the market had not seen since the previous August, the board’s figures showed.
Floods in the Groves
Behind the inventory slide sat a simple physical story. Crude palm oil production, pounded by seasonal flooding, shrank to a one-year low. In the world’s second-largest producer, output fell 9.35 per cent and landed at 1.25 million tonnes, the fourth monthly decline in a row, a stretch long enough that traders read it as a season rather than a blip.
For the estates, the math is unforgiving: flooded access roads and saturated peat mean fewer ripe fruit bunches gathered, and every tonne not harvested in February is a tonne neither shipped nor stored.
The Trade Flows Out
The port side of the ledger moved too. Exports slipped 1.99 per cent, reaching 1.11 million tonnes, a 10-month low, while imports collapsed by 63.8 per cent, tightening the funnel from both directions: less crude coming in, less product going out, and a stockpile draining faster than it refills.
The mix matters for a country where palm oil is a flagship export. Low inventories tend to support prices when demand returns, which is precisely the scenario the board’s leadership had in mind.
What the Director General Expected
Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir, director general of the MPOB, told Reuters that week that inventories could dip under 2 million tonnes before the end of April, with exports expected to climb after Indonesia restricted its own overseas sales. The forecast, in plain terms: a rival producer holding back supply would push buyers toward Malaysia exactly when Malaysian tanks were running thin.
The concrete facts on the record: stockpiles of 2.12 million tonnes at end-February 2023, down 6.56 per cent from January and the lowest since August; output of 1.25 million tonnes, down 9.35 per cent; exports of 1.11 million tonnes, down 1.99 per cent; imports down 63.8 per cent; and an official expectation of stocks below 2 million tonnes by end-April as Indonesian sales restrictions redirected demand.
Sources
Sources
- Malaysia end-Feb palm oil stocks shrink to six-month low… | Malay Mail
- HR-ON Recruit Masterclass – HR-ON
