Ninepoint Partners did not need long to explain what went wrong with the consensus. “The conflict in the Middle East changed that almost overnight,” said James Fox, the firm’s Co-CEO and Managing Partner, about a year that had opened with inflation easing and rates heading down.
The Toronto firm put out its 2026 Mid-Year Market Outlook on June 17. In it, portfolio managers name what they see as the most compelling opportunities for the second half. Topics run from fixed income and energy to infrastructure and digital assets.
Fox said advisors and investors have both gone back to ask where the real opportunities sit and what risks exist. His fellow Co-CEO, John Wilson, drew a harder line: “How quickly the market backdrop can change” is the lesson of the first half, he said, “especially given our current geopolitical climate.”
War, oil and the strait
The energy section ties the firm’s view directly to Hormuz. Ninepoint believes energy equities do not yet price in the cash flow producers could earn if oil stays high after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. It describes a meaningful gap between valuations and fundamentals.
Energy also feeds the rates picture. Pressure on inflation from energy, AI spending and tariffs has turned the U.S. rate debate from cuts toward upside risk, according to the outlook. Ninepoint is holding low duration, and it expects record new issuance in credit markets to keep spreads widening.
Governments as buyers
On metals and mining, the firm points to state action. Governments are working to secure supply chains, build strategic stockpiles and invest in defence, which supports demand for critical minerals and industrial metals. Ninepoint calls valuations in silver equities attractive and says the multi-year bull cycle for gold remains intact.
Wilson said equity markets have stayed resilient despite the uncertainty, backed by AI and data centre investment, metals demand and sovereignty over critical infrastructure. Earnings, the outlook adds, remain the main driver of returns even under macroeconomic stress.
Infrastructure gets a similar security framing. Electrification and new projects pursued in the name of national security should lead to years of above-trend spending in Canada and abroad.
The last section covers crypto. Ninepoint says it has crossed from speculative technology to financial infrastructure, and that banks, asset managers, exchanges and payment networks, once its loudest skeptics, are now its biggest adopters.
