Russia’s oil export revenue fell by $1.5 billion in a single month, to $9.5 billion in February 2026. That was the lowest figure since the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, according to the Kyiv School of Economics Institute’s Russian Oil Tracker. It was not a one-off. Energy revenues dropped by a third in early 2026 compared with earlier years, and the National Security Journal laid much of the blame on Ukrainian drones.
Hitting the refineries
Kyiv calls it a “revenue war”: cut Moscow’s hard-currency income and its ability to pay for the invasion shrinks. Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian energy sites, hitting the Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea and the Bashneft-Novoil plant in Ufa, more than 1,400 km from the border. The Journal reported that the strikes had knocked out 25 percent of Russia’s refining capacity, and that Moscow was moving to ban exports of diesel and aviation fuel.
Ryazan, Moscow, Kirishi and Nizhny Novgorod were among the refineries struck. Together they handle roughly 238,000 tons a day and account for about 25 percent of Russian diesel and 30 percent of its gasoline. Ukraine’s military said the Syzran refinery, attacked on May 21, was confirmed shut down. OilX estimated that Russia’s average refining rate in April fell to 4.69 million barrels a day, the lowest in more than 16 years.
Ports and prices
Strikes on Novorossiysk pushed Russian producers to divert output to Baltic ports at Primorsk and Ust-Luga and to Murmansk on the Barents Sea. Infotek, a Moscow oil and gas journal, said shipments through Novorossiysk dropped to 14.8 million barrels in April from 21.2 million in March. The Carnegie Endowment put seaborne exports at an average 3.5 million barrels a day in April and May, down from 5.2 million between January 1 and March 24.
Prices should have been a gift. The war in Iran had pushed oil and gas prices up, yet Russia could not cash in. Instead it has had to offer steep Urals discounts to a handful of big buyers such as India and China, squeezing margins. India, for its part, has pledged to cut Russian purchases by several hundred thousand barrels a day, and Washington has pitched Venezuelan crude as a replacement.
The cost to the balance sheet
OilPrice.com calculated that Ukrainian strikes cost Russian oil companies $13 billion in 2025, and that Putin’s government may now lose up to $100 million a day in potential earnings. About half of Russian oil fields are reportedly running at a loss, and lenders have restructured over $35 billion in sector loans.
The Kremlin has leaned on its National Wealth Fund and record sales of strategic gold. Liquid assets in the fund are down 57 percent since the conflict began, and Interfax reported a 90.5 billion ruble drop in February alone. Oil and gas taxes supply 25 percent of the Russian budget. President Zelenskyy said last week that Ukraine’s long-range plan for May was being carried out largely in full, with refineries, storage facilities and other oil-revenue infrastructure as the key targets.
