NEW YORK, September 23 — The RSM US Middle Market Business Index came in at 111.8 for the third quarter of 2026, a statistically insignificant change from 113.6 in the prior quarter and a reading that keeps the gauge near recent highs. The bottom line: middle market executives are still spending, still hiring and still expecting growth, even as the index barely budged. RSM US LLP released the data on Sept. 22, 2026.
The firm said the reading reflects solid business conditions supported by rising profits, sustained business investment and recently enacted tax cuts.
What Executives Reported
Survey data showed middle market executives maintaining a positive outlook. Sixty-eight percent anticipated both revenues and net earnings to increase over the next six months, and 58% expected the overall economy to improve. For the current quarter, 43% of executives reported the economy improved, 58% said revenues increased and 59% reported higher net earnings.
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US LLP, said the American middle market is prospering amid a solid economic expansion. “By almost every measure in our survey, executives expressed optimism, with revenues and net earnings pointing to favorable growth conditions ahead,” he said.
“Sustained capital spending remains one of the strongest signals of confidence in the economic outlook as businesses prepare for the next phase of economic and technological change.”
Capital Spending and the AI Buildout
Capital expenditures have risen since the pandemic shock. In the third quarter, 57% of respondents reported increased capital spending and 65% said they expect to raise those outlays over the next six months. Brusuelas called this the most encouraging long-term trend the firm has observed in the middle market in the survey’s decade-long history.
He said businesses are making productivity-enhancing investments to compete and grow in an economy increasingly shaped by AI, consistent with the broader buildout of AI infrastructure.
Workforce and Pricing Pressure
Workforce investment remained a priority. For the second consecutive quarter, more than half of respondents — 54% — increased hiring in the current quarter, while 60% planned to add employees over the next six months. Fifty-seven percent reported increasing compensation during the quarter and 66% expected to raise compensation over the next six months.
Inflation remained the most pressing challenge. Seventy-five percent of respondents said they paid higher prices in the current quarter and 76% expected to do so going forward.
The data suggests firms are offsetting higher input costs through a mix of margin compression and downstream price increases. Roughly 66% increased prices in the current quarter and 70% expected to do so over the next six months.
How the Index Is Built
The survey data informing the index was gathered from 501 respondents at middle market firms in the United States from July 7 to July 29, 2026. The MMBI is based on research of middle market firms conducted by Harris Poll, which began in the first quarter of 2015, and is conducted four times a year in the first month of each quarter: January, April, July and October.
The panel is in transition to reflect RSM’s new definition of the US middle market, with panel members from smaller companies with revenue under $30 million being removed through screening criteria in each quarterly survey. The panel currently consists of approximately 400-500 active records who have conducted at least one survey in the past two years.
Built in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics, the MMBI draws on a subset of survey questions asking respondents to report changes in indicators such as revenues, profits, capital expenditures, hiring, employee compensation, prices paid, prices received and inventories, patterned after qualitative business surveys such as those from the Institute of Supply Management and National Federation of Independent Businesses. Investors will note the gap between current-quarter readings and six-month expectations.
The forward-looking numbers on revenues, earnings, hiring and compensation all sit above the share of firms reporting gains in the quarter just ended — a pattern that points to continued expansion in the months ahead, provided the pricing pressure executives flagged does not erode margins further. The next MMBI reading, covering the fourth quarter, is due in October.
