The figure that matters: 111.8. That is where the RSM US Middle Market Business Index landed for the third quarter of 2026, down from 113.6 in the previous quarter. RSM called the move statistically insignificant, and the gauge stays near its recent highs. A reading above 100 means the middle market is expanding.
RSM US LLP released the numbers on Sept. 22. The firm pointed to rising profits, steady business investment and recently enacted tax cuts as the supports under that confidence.
Optimism by the numbers
Sixty-eight percent of executives expect both revenues and net earnings to rise over the next six months. Fifty-eight percent expect the overall economy to get better. Looking at the quarter just ended, 43% said the economy improved, 58% saw higher revenues and 59% booked higher net earnings.
“The American middle market is prospering amid a solid economic expansion,” said Joe Brusuelas, RSM’s chief economist. “By almost every measure in our survey, executives expressed optimism, with revenues and net earnings pointing to favorable growth conditions ahead.”
Money going into equipment and AI
Capital spending is the headline for Brusuelas. In the third quarter, 57% of respondents spent more on capital expenditures, and 65% plan to raise those outlays over the next six months. Firms have been lifting such spending since the shock of the pandemic.
“This is the most encouraging long-term trend we have observed in the middle market in the survey’s decade-long history,” he said. Companies are buying productivity gains so they can compete in an economy increasingly shaped by AI, he added, and the pattern fits the wider buildout of AI infrastructure.
Hiring, pay and prices
Hiring stayed strong. For the second quarter running, more than half of respondents, 54%, added staff, and 60% plan more hires over the next six months. On pay, 57% raised compensation this quarter and 66% expect to do so in the next six.
Inflation remains the sore spot. Seventy-five percent of firms paid higher prices this quarter, and 76% expect to keep doing so. Companies appear to be absorbing some of the hit through thinner margins and passing the rest along: roughly 66% raised their own prices this quarter and 70% expect to in the coming six months.
How the index is built
The data came from 501 respondents at US middle market firms, surveyed from July 7 to July 29, 2026. Harris Poll runs the research, which began in the first quarter of 2015, in January, April, July and October. RSM is shifting the panel to fit its new definition of the middle market, screening out smaller companies with revenue under $30 million each quarter. About 400 to 500 active records remain.
The index was built with Moody’s Analytics. It draws on survey questions about revenues, profits, capital expenditures, hiring, compensation, prices paid, prices received and inventories, modeled on surveys from the Institute of Supply Management and the National Federation of Independent Businesses.
