Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) grew 6 per cent year on year in April, Enterprise Singapore (ESG) reported on Monday, May 17. That kept alive a run of growth that began in December, but it fell short of the revised 11.9 per cent rise in March and of the 11.5 per cent that analysts polled by Bloomberg had forecast.
On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, exports slid 8.8 per cent from March.
Analysts read the slowdown as a pause. JPMorgan’s Ong Sin Beng said he still expected trade to climb through 2021. “Given the expected recovery in the rest of the world, the view remains that the underlying recovery in goods demand should continue though mixed in with periodic volatility,” he said.
Electronics and non-electronics
Electronics shipments rose 10.9 per cent year on year, a step down from 24.4 per cent in March, helped by demand for items such as diodes and transistors. Non-electronic Nodx grew 4.7 per cent after a 9.2 per cent gain the month before. Primary chemicals, petrochemicals and specialised machinery did most of the lifting.
Pharmaceuticals, a volatile category, pulled the other way. Barclays regional economist Brian Tan said underlying momentum was still solid. The jump in specialised machinery, he added, appears to come from equipment used to make electronics and semiconductors, a sign that manufacturers are trying to ease shortages of chips.
Markets
Shipments to Singapore’s top 10 markets taken together fell in April. Smaller sales of non-monetary gold, pharmaceuticals and disk media meant lower exports to the United States, the European Union and Japan. Nodx to China, Malaysia, Hong Kong, South Korea and Thailand went up. Exports to emerging markets jumped 70.5 per cent, driven by higher shipments to South Asia and other regions.
UOB economist Barnabas Gan said the gains with key partners suggest regional trade demand “has continued to stay buoyant, a remarkable feat despite the rise in Covid-19 infections in several economies.” He thought Singapore’s tighter virus rules would do little to the external environment, since businesses can keep operating, unlike during the 2020 circuit breaker when only essential services stayed open.
OCBC’s Selena Ling struck a more careful note. Nodx expanded 6.4 per cent year on year over the first four months of 2021, she said, and “there is a risk that Nodx momentum may moderate further in the coming months due to the global Covid-19 situation and the tightening of restriction measures both globally and domestically.”
Total trade
ESG data showed total trade up 26.3 per cent year on year in April to $95.8 billion, after a 19.6 per cent rise in March. Total exports gained 26.6 per cent and imports 25.9 per cent. Measured month on month with seasonal adjustment, total trade fell 2.6 per cent, reversing a 7.1 per cent increase in March, when it hit $98.4 billion.
Oil shipments rose 63.8 per cent year on year from a low base, helped by higher exports to Malaysia, Indonesia and China. By volume, though, oil exports shrank 20.6 per cent, following a 23.5 per cent decline in March.
Sources
- Singapore exports see slower 6% growth in April; analysts say still on recovery track
- Singapore's exports grow at slower pace of 6.4% in April
Sources
- Singapore exports see slower 6% growth in April… | The Straits Times
- Singapore's exports grow at slower pace of 6.4% in April – CNA
