FORT WAYNE, September 17 — Steel Dynamics, Inc. told investors Thursday to expect third quarter 2026 earnings of $5.34 to $5.38 per diluted share, a range that would roughly double the $2.74 per diluted share reported in the same quarter a year earlier and run about 45 percent above the $3.69 per diluted share booked sequentially in the second quarter.
The bottom line: the Fort Wayne, Indiana-based steel producer and metals recycler is guiding to its sharpest sequential jump of the year, and it is crediting the steel side of the house. Steel Dynamics said third quarter profitability from its steel operations is expected to be significantly higher than sequential second quarter results.
Two forces are doing the work — metal margin expansion across the platform and record shipments. Average realized steel selling values are expected to increase, and that gain arrives alongside lower scrap costs. That combination widens the spread between what the company pays for raw material and what it collects on finished steel.
Order activity remains strong. The company pointed to solid underlying demand and persistently low customer inventories, conditions it said continue to support favorable pricing.
Demand across key end markets remains solid, led by non-residential construction, energy, automotive, and industrial sectors.
Recycling slips, fabrication builds
Not every segment is moving in the same direction. Third quarter earnings from metals recycling operations are expected to come in lower than the sequential second quarter, on lower metal spreads and modestly lower shipments. Steel fabrication is the quieter positive.
Earnings there are expected to improve modestly from the second quarter, as stronger shipments more than offset metal spread compression — higher pricing was offset by increased steel input material costs. Customer order activity in fabrication remains strong, building on momentum that began in late 2025.
The current backlog is nearly 50 percent higher than prior-year third quarter levels and extends through the first quarter of 2027. Demand remains healthy across commercial construction, data center and warehouse development, manufacturing, and healthcare markets. Looking into 2027, the company anticipates further steel fabrication volume growth, supported by continued domestic manufacturing investment, U.S. infrastructure spending and stimulus programs, and ongoing onshoring activity.
Investors will note the guidance lands with the company’s aluminum operations also expected to improve meaningfully compared to sequential second quarter results, driven by increased shipments. What to watch next: whether steel pricing holds through the fourth quarter, and whether the fabrication backlog — already extending into early 2027 — converts into the volume growth management is projecting.
