$5.34 to $5.38. That was the per-share range Steel Dynamics gave on September 17 for third quarter 2026 earnings, against $3.69 in the second quarter and $2.74 in the third quarter a year earlier. At the midpoint, profit per share would be nearly double last year’s and about 45 percent above the prior quarter.
The bottom line is steel. The Fort Wayne company said its steel mills should earn far more than they did in the spring, thanks to wider metal margins and record shipments. Realized selling prices were expected to rise while scrap, the raw material, got cheaper. Customers were still ordering heavily, and their inventories remained thin, which the company said keeps pricing firm. Non-residential construction, energy, automotive and industrial buyers led demand.
Recycling down, fabrication up
Not every division shared the lift. Metals recycling was expected to earn less than in the second quarter, with narrower spreads and slightly lower shipments.
Steel fabrication looked better, though only by a little. Stronger shipments more than made up for squeezed metal spreads, since higher selling prices were eaten by costlier steel inputs. Orders there have been strong since late 2025. The backlog stood nearly 50 percent above the level of a year before and ran through the first quarter of 2027. Buyers in commercial construction, data centers and warehouses, manufacturing and healthcare kept placing work. For 2027, the company expected fabrication volumes to grow further, helped by domestic manufacturing investment, U.S. infrastructure spending and stimulus programs, and a continuing shift of production back onshore.
Aluminum and buybacks
Aluminum was expected to improve meaningfully on the second quarter on higher shipments. At the flat rolled mill in Columbus, Mississippi, all three cold mills were running. The first of two Continuous Annealing and Solution Heat lines was operating and due to ship commercial material in the fourth quarter. The second was set to begin producing material for customer qualification before year end.
Steel Dynamics had also bought back $261 million of its stock so far in the quarter, just under one percent of the shares outstanding. It planned to report full results after the market close on October 19 and to hold a conference call at 11:00 a.m. Eastern the following day.
