At around $4.23 a gallon, the national average gas price is up more than $1 from a year ago, according to AAA. A Motley Fool analysis by Matt DiLallo, carried by AOL on April 30, puts a household number on it: an average driver uses 575 gallons a year, so the extra cost works out to about $600.
The cause, per the piece, is the war with Iran, which has driven oil prices up this year. DiLallo’s angle is that what hurts drivers helps oil producers, and he picks Chevron and Occidental Petroleum as two to watch. His view is an opinion, and the article comes with a stock-recommendation pitch from the Motley Fool.
Chevron
DiLallo says Chevron expected a strong 2026 before oil prices came into it. Expansion projects finished last year are now producing oil. The company closed its acquisition of Hess and started a program to cut structural costs by $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of this year. Together, those moves led Chevron to expect an extra $12.5 billion in free cash flow, on the assumption that oil would average $70 a barrel.
Oil is likely to stay well above that, he writes. The US Energy Information Administration now expects an average of about $96 a barrel this year. Each $1 rise in the average Brent price adds $600 million to Chevron’s after-tax cash flow. DiLallo expects much of the windfall to go back to shareholders through buybacks at the high end of Chevron’s $10 billion to $20 billion annual target range.
Occidental
Occidental also started the year with more modest hopes for oil. It planned to cut capital spending by about $550 million compared with last year, and its debt-reduction plan promised savings on interest. Those factors pointed to a free cash flow improvement of more than $1.2 billion in 2026.
Higher prices change that picture. Every $1 added to the average annual oil price brings in about $265 million of annualized cash flow, the article says. Occidental could spend the extra money on capital projects, repay more debt or buy back shares. It could also speed up the redemption of Berkshire Hathaway’s preferred equity investment, although the company does not plan to begin redeeming it until August 2029.
DiLallo’s pitch to readers is simple: one way to soften the pain at the pump is to own shares in companies cashing in on crude. As the piece notes, the Motley Fool’s Stock Advisor team did not include Occidental in its list of 10 best stocks to buy at the time.
