Russian refineries ran at 3.91 million barrels of crude a day in early July. That is the lowest national rate since March 2005, and more than 1.4 million barrels a day under last year’s average, according to Energy Aspects data cited by Bloomberg.
The cause is a Ukrainian campaign that began in March. Roughly 50 attacks in the past 100 days have hit at least 24 of Russia’s 34 large refineries. Moscow has responded by banning exports of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and the shortage is now being felt in diesel markets far from Russia.
No safe refinery left
The July 6 strike on the Omsk refinery mattered because of where it is. Omsk sits more than 2,000 kilometres from the front and was Russia’s largest refinery in 2024, processing about 22 million tonnes of crude. Reports say the attack damaged ELOU-AVT-11, a primary unit built to handle 8.4 million tonnes of crude a year, and a second large unit, AVT-10. These are the distillation units that take in crude and split it into usable feedstocks.
Others have been hit one after another. Saratov stopped work after a March strike. Kirishi lost capacity in March and again in May. Norsi in Kstovo was struck repeatedly. The Moscow refinery was hit several times in June and may stay offline until the end of the year. On the night of July 14, drones hit the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar region and targeted Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat in Bashkortostan.
Repairs cannot keep up. Ukraine went back to the Moscow refinery, Norsi and Syzran before operators had restored full output, according to Meduza. A planned overhaul in normal times takes weeks or months.
What the exchange shows
Russia has stopped publishing much refinery data, so Meduza turned to trading on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange. It analysed 65,700 transactions. Daily gasoline and diesel sales ran at about 118,000 to 150,000 tonnes from January to March, then fell to 104,000 tonnes in April, 106,000 in May and 80,300 in June. June volumes were 38% below a year earlier, and weighted average prices were 37% higher.
Single refineries took bigger hits. Sales from the Moscow refinery’s delivery points dropped from about 4,400 tonnes a day to roughly 400 after the June 16-18 attacks. Kirishi fell about 80% after its May strike.
Russian gasoline output slid to about 90,000 tonnes a day in June, against summer demand of at least 110,000. Diesel had been the cushion: Russia made 81.6 million tonnes in 2024 against home demand of around 51 million.
The export bans came in steps. Gasoline went in April, jet fuel on June 1, and diesel on July 8. The diesel ban also covers oil companies that refine their own crude.
Pumps run dry at home, prices jump abroad
Russia has started buying finished fuel. At least 60,000 tonnes of gasoline reportedly arrived from India, and Belarus shipped 141,000 tonnes in the first 25 days of June, 2.4 times its May volume. Reuters reported that Moscow wanted roughly 400,000 tonnes a month from foreign suppliers.
Drivers in Chita reportedly waited up to 39 hours. Stations in Krasnodar, Irkutsk and Pskov have closed or limited sales, and teachers in Krasnodar were assigned shifts at filling stations to manage queues.
After the diesel ban, European diesel refining margins rose above $60 a barrel, a record, and US diesel futures posted their biggest one-day gain in four years. Turkey, Brazil, North Africa and Central Asia now have to find replacement cargoes from the United States, India and the Middle East. Russian jet fuel deliveries to Central Asia and Afghanistan fell more than 92% between May and June.
Refining capacity will come back eventually. Whether Russia regains its place as a dependable diesel supplier is far less certain, because customers have already begun adapting.
