“All possible rounds of negotiations have been tried, but without success.” That was Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi, speaking to Bloomberg about efforts to reach a new Black Sea grain deal. Countries that tried to mediate between Kyiv and Moscow told Ukraine the Kremlin had turned down every option on the table.
Vysotskyi saw no sign of a truce in the coming months. “Unfortunately, it is difficult to imagine any possible solutions to this issue in the coming months,” he said. “We really need to prepare for the situation to remain as critical as it is now.”
The stakes reach well beyond the two countries. Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly a quarter of global grain exports.
Exports already down sharply
Ukraine shipped just 1.13 million tons of wheat, corn, barley and sunflower oil in August, according to Trade Data Monitor. A year earlier the figure was 2.6 million tons. Only once since Russia launched its full-scale invasion has the monthly total been lower: April 2022, when Russian naval forces had blocked Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and land routes to Europe were still being set up.
Andrey Sizov, director of the agricultural consultancy SovEcon, estimates Russia exported 1.8 million tons of wheat in September and Ukraine around 900,000 tons. Combined, that is roughly 2.7 million tons, 60 percent below last year and the lowest since the 2010-11 season. Sizov said grain prices have recently eased on hopes of a new deal, even though actual flows through the Black Sea remain at long-term lows.
Agriculture brings in more than half of Ukraine’s export revenue. Kyiv is pushing more cargo through alternative routes, but Vysotskyi said they can handle no more than about half of traditional volumes. He expects around 30 million tons of agricultural products to stay in the country this season.
Turkey and Egypt press Putin
A year-long deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations in July 2022 let Ukrainian exports move by sea. Russia later withdrew from it. Turkey is trying to revive an arrangement. In early September, meeting Vladimir Putin in Kyrgyzstan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the issue had to be resolved because the damage from the disruption kept growing. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has also asked Putin to help stabilize the situation and keep grain flowing from both countries.
Russia’s own exports hit
Russia is struggling too. Ukrainian forces began targeting Russian ports on the Azov and Black seas in July, and around 80 percent of Russia’s grain exports pass through them. Russian figures cited in the report say Ukrainian drones have damaged grain terminals and more than 100 vessels. SovEcon estimates Russian grain exports hit a 16-year low in August and September, at about a third of last year’s level. The Russian Grain Union says weekly wheat exports have fallen fourfold to around 347,000 tons.
Putin has ordered the government to start buying grain from farmers for the state intervention fund, Interfax reported. Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said authorities could purchase between 1 million and 3 million tons. The fund held about 3.7 million tons in August, and the last state purchasing auctions took place in the first half of 2024.
The order followed a warning from Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov that without urgent purchases at a “reasonable” price, the next planting campaign and harvest could be at risk. The intervention mechanism dates to 2001. It buys grain for state reserves when supply is excessive and sells it when supply is tight.
