September fourteen. The S&P 500 held within two percent of its August thirteen record high of seven thousand seven hundred ninety-nine, even as Brent crude topped one hundred six dollars and the ten-year Treasury yield hit four point nine six three percent – levels last seen in two thousand seven.
The bottom line: bulls are not giving up, but the path higher is narrowing. Oil above one hundred dollars and yields at multi-decade highs compress the margin for error.
By the numbers: Yardeni Research reiterated an eighty-four hundred year-end target. Forward earnings rose twenty-eight percent this year while the forward P/E fell twelve point nine percent – investors aren’t paying as much for growth. Yardeni raised its twenty twenty-seven earnings estimate to four hundred twenty-five dollars a share from four fifteen, and lowered its forward P/E expectation to nineteen point seven from twenty point two.
Investors will note HSBC lifted its target to eight thousand one hundred from seventy-six fifty, citing stronger earnings, sustained AI investment, and a resilient economy. First-half earnings growth hit nearly forty percent; HSBC expects at least twenty-five percent in the second half. Barclays moved to seven thousand nine fifty from seven thousand eight hundred, raising its EPS forecast to three sixty-five from three thirty-seven. More than eighty-six percent of companies beat estimates.
The figure that matters: AI is carrying the market. The Kobeissi Letter said without AI, the S&P 500 would be at least fifty percent lower. Without the oil surge, it would be above nine thousand. Micron, Intel, AMD posted triple-digit growth. The Global X AI ETF outperformed the index.
Citi warned its eight thousand one hundred target may be stretched. Strategist Scott Chronert said macro factors have shifted – oil crossed one hundred dollars for the first time since May, the thirty-year yield touched five point three six two percent, last seen in two thousand two. Odds of a September Fed rate hike have skyrocketed; Chronert thinks if the Fed hikes, it could be two moves, not one.
Retail sentiment on SPY turned extremely bearish on Stocktwits – “The crash is finally here” posted one user. USO sentiment was bullish. SPY up twelve percent year to date; USO up one hundred twenty-four percent.
The AI split weighs on sentiment. Anthropic’s Dario Amodei proposed slowing AI development; OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Elon Musk backed oversight. Microsoft and Meta opposed slowing. Trump dismissed concerns, saying guardrails can manage risks.
