Gasoline did most of the damage in the August 2023 inflation report. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on September 13, 2023 that its Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.6 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis. July had come in at 0.2 percent.
Over the 12 months to August, the all items index was up 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The twelve months to July had shown 3.2 percent. So the annual rate moved the wrong way.
Pump prices drive the month
The bureau’s own account is blunt about the cause. Gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly rise, accounting for over half of it. The gasoline index climbed 10.6 percent in August, after only 0.2 percent in July. Before seasonal adjustment the increase was 5.9 percent. The wider energy index rose 5.6 percent as every major energy component went up.
Look at the year, though, and the picture flips. Energy was down 3.6 percent over the 12 months, and gasoline was down 3.3 percent. The monthly jump was real, but it came off a lower base.
Underneath the headline
Strip out food and energy and the monthly move was smaller. That core index rose 0.3 percent in August, following 0.2 percent in July. Over 12 months it was up 4.3 percent. Rent, owners’ equivalent rent, motor vehicle insurance, medical care and personal care all increased. Lodging away from home, used cars and trucks, and recreation fell.
Shelter kept climbing. Its index rose 0.3 percent on the month, marking the 40th consecutive monthly increase, and 7.3 percent over the year. The bureau said shelter accounted for over 70 percent of the total increase in the core index.
Food prices rose 0.2 percent in August, the same as in July. Food at home gained 0.2 percent, and food away from home gained 0.3 percent. Over the full year, the food index was up 4.3 percent.
The figures are the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ own reading of its data, and the release itself offered no forecast of what the Federal Reserve would do next.
