Thirty-eight people died when an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 crashed on Wednesday, and airlines have since started pulling back from Russian airspace. The jet was flying from Azerbaijan to Russia when it veered off course after sustaining some kind of damage over Russia. It reached Aktau airport in Kazakhstan before crash-landing there. Twenty-nine passengers survived.
Nobody has established why it went down. Business Insider reported on Thursday, citing Euronews and The New York Times, that Azerbaijani investigators believed Russia shot the plane down. Many analysts share that view.
Who has suspended what
Azerbaijan Airlines said it would stop flying to 10 Russian cities starting Saturday, pointing to “physical and technical external interference.” The suspension, it said, “will remain in effect until the completion of the final investigation.”
El Al, Israel’s flagship carrier, said in a Telegram post on Thursday that it was suspending all Tel Aviv-Moscow flights for the week because of events in Russia’s airspace. A new assessment next week will decide whether the route resumes.
Flydubai, the Emirati low-cost carrier, said it would halt flights from Sochi through January 2 and from Mineralnye Vody through January 3, according to the Association of Tour Operators of Russia. Qazaq Air, a Kazakh airline, said it was pausing flights from Astana to Yekaterinburg from Saturday until January 27, 2025.
These are route suspensions by individual carriers. Western airlines have generally stayed out of Russian airspace since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, so they had no services to divert or cancel.
What it could cost Moscow
Peter Frankopan, an Oxford University expert on Russian and Balkans history, told Business Insider that if Moscow is found at fault, it will “make people nervous about ever flying over Russian airspace.” In his words, “That has significance during the war and after it is over — including for Russian revenues from overflights.” Those are fees paid to a country for the right to cross its airspace.
Russia’s civil aviation industry already leans on the state. A Reuters analysis found that Russia had spent over $12 billion in state subsidies and loans as of December 2023 to keep the sector going since Western sanctions took effect.
