Brent crude went from a prewar close of about $72 a barrel to nearly $120 at its peak. Six months after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, it is still about 20% above where it started. The Associated Press reported on Aug. 30, 2026 that this single number explains much of who has won and who has lost from the war.
The gloomiest forecasts from the opening days, with oil surging and the world sliding into recession, have not come true. “So far, the global economy has pulled off the financial equivalent of a ‘Mission Impossible’ scene,” said Michael Ashley Schulman, an investment strategist with Cerity Partners.
Investors who held on
The first weeks were ugly. Wall Street dropped for five straight weeks, the Dow and Nasdaq slid into corrections, and the S&P 500 had its worst month since 2022. Then the market bottomed in late March and turned. Since then the Dow has gained nearly 19%, the S&P is up almost 22% and the Nasdaq has surged 27%.
The International Monetary Fund said in a July report that two forces are pushing the economy in opposite directions. The war has strained growth, but enthusiasm over artificial intelligence has offset the drag. Main Street pays more for fuel, food and travel. Wall Street, so far, shrugs.
Paying at the pump and the airport
With tankers crawling through the Strait of Hormuz, anyone who travels feels it first. The International Air Transport Association expects jet fuel to cost 70% more on average than in 2025. Airlines have passed that on through higher fares, bigger baggage fees and fuel surcharges, and some have cut flights. Lufthansa Group scrapped 20,000 short-haul flights. Spirit Airlines collapsed.
Brett House, a Columbia University economist, saw little relief ahead. “The likelihood that fuel surcharges are going to be rolled back and airfares are going to be brought down is very low over the next few months,” he said.
Hunger and fertilizer
The poorest have had it worst. The Gulf is a major supplier of fertilizer as well as oil, and the World Bank’s price index put fertilizer 44% above its prewar level at the April peak. Some farmers cut back on application, which could damage next year’s harvests.
Carl Skau, acting executive director of the United Nations World Food Programme, testified this week that the “suffocation of fertilizer exports” had hit Asia and Africa hard. “An oil tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz can mean one less meal a day for a child in Sudan,” he said.
Electric vehicles are one beneficiary. Sales hit records in places: year-over-year growth reached 110% in Singapore, 180% in New Zealand and 300% in Colombia. The International Energy Agency projects EVs will make up 29% of total vehicle sales worldwide in 2026, up from 25% last year.
