Ian Yarbrough, 46, works in utilities at Indiana University in Bloomington. He keeps his retirement money in index funds, and he has never trusted the hype around AI companies, so he kept them out of his investing on purpose.
Then he heard that SpaceX would probably land inside the index funds he holds almost as soon as it listed. He tried to adjust. His brokerage made it hard to steer clear of funds with AI exposure, and he gave up.
“It doesn’t feel like anybody is watching out for retail investors or the common person anymore,” he said. “It feels like the system is rigged against us.”
The waiting period that vanished
Normally a newly public company must wait at least a year before a major stock index will consider it. The delay shields investors from the swings of a young stock and gives the company time to show a record of transparent reporting.
SpaceX told the index providers it wanted in quickly. Nasdaq, FTSE Russell and Morningstar CRSP rewrote their rules to oblige. SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 within 15 days of going public. The IPO carried a valuation of $1.77 trillion, and the company lost $4.9 billion last year.
S&P Dow Jones Indices said no. Its S&P 500 rules require 12 months of public trading, a minimum float and four consecutive quarters of positive net income. A company that lost $4.9 billion the year before fails that screen on the spot, so SpaceX cannot qualify until at least mid-2027.
So the fund a saver owns decides the outcome. Track the S&P 500 and SpaceX is not in the portfolio yet. Track the Nasdaq-100 and it arrives in about two weeks. Most passive investors know they own index funds. Few could say which index sits underneath or what it lets in.
Washington enters the picture
President Trump said the federal government may take equity stakes in AI companies, naming OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX, as part of what he called a partnership. The administration already holds stakes in Intel and in rare earth startups. OpenAI’s CEO has pushed for a government stake in his own company and has been meeting lawmakers in Washington.
Senator Bernie Sanders has proposed a 50% tax on AI lab stock to fund a US sovereign wealth fund. It has not passed, but it is under active political discussion. If it did become law, the value of AI positions in retirement accounts would be cut in half overnight.
A saver holding Nasdaq-100 funds could end up owning companies where the government is partner, regulator and tax collector at once.
The stakes are large for households. Equities now make up 37% of total US household wealth, a record. Spending on AI, clean energy and defense reached $6.9 trillion globally in 2025 and could hit $16 trillion by 2030.
