Eric Nuttall expects oil to hold an $80 US floor even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Nuttall, a senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, set out that view in the Toronto firm’s 2026 Mid-Year Market Outlook, released June 17 and reported by CBC News.
His reasoning is about restocking. Global inventories will have to be rebuilt after nearly four months of fighting in the Middle East, he says, and that should keep demand for crude steady. The strait normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude supply by tanker, and it has been effectively cut off since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February.
A leaked interim agreement between Washington and Tehran says Iran will take steps to reopen the route immediately and will be free to sell its oil without restrictions. On Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate was hovering around $77 US per barrel, about $10 US above its pre-war level and $37 US below the April wartime high.
Nuttall thinks the market has misread energy stocks. “While the stocks have appreciated in price, our valuation suggests that stocks are discounting closer to $65 US WTI, below our view of the floor price for oil,” he wrote. At $80 US WTI, he added, “the companies will generate significant free cash flow, most of which will be returned to investors in the form of share buybacks and dividends.”
A Year That Changed Course
The report collects views from Ninepoint portfolio managers covering fixed income, energy, metals and mining, gold equities, silver equities, infrastructure and digital assets.
James Fox, Co-CEO and Managing Partner, described how the year began. “The year started with a clear consensus that inflation was drifting back toward target, rates were coming down, and the economy was on steady footing,” he said. “The conflict in the Middle East changed that almost overnight, with both advisors and investors re-assessing where the real opportunities are and what risks exist.”
John Wilson, his fellow Co-CEO and Managing Partner, said the first half showed “how quickly the market backdrop can change.” He said equity markets have stayed resilient, helped by AI and data centre investment, demand for metals and critical minerals, and sovereignty over critical infrastructure. “That’s why active management matters,” Wilson said.
Sector Calls
In fixed income, Ninepoint says energy, AI spending and tariffs have turned the U.S. rate conversation from cuts toward upside risk. It is staying low duration, and expects record new issuance to push credit spreads wider.
On global equities, the firm expects momentum to carry into the second half on AI capital spending and strong earnings. Metals and mining get support from government efforts to secure supply chains, build strategic stockpiles and invest in defence. Ninepoint finds silver equities attractively valued and says the multi-year bull cycle for gold is intact.
It expects electrification and national-security infrastructure projects to drive years of above-trend spending in Canada and elsewhere. On digital assets, it says crypto has moved from speculative technology to financial infrastructure, with banks, asset managers, exchanges and payment networks now among its biggest adopters.
Sources
- Portfolio manager bullish on oil even with eventual reopening of Strait of Hormuz | CBC News
- CORRECTION – Ninepoint Publishes 2026 Mid-Year Outlook
