Oil first, then gold and the dollar, then stocks and Bitcoin. According to an analysis from Bitget Academy, that is the order in which markets have reacted to major Iran-linked escalations, from the June 2019 Gulf tanker attacks to the January 2020 Soleimani strike and the March 2026 Israel and U.S. war with Iran.
The assets do not move the same way every time, the analysis says. The sequence is what repeats. Markets shock first, verify second, and normalize later.
Three phases
In the first phase, days 1 to 3, headlines dominate. Oil and gold usually jump, the dollar firms, and stocks and Bitcoin often weaken as traders cut risk.
From day 4 to day 14, markets start separating fear from verified disruption. They ask what is actually damaged rather than what might be. Bitget describes this stretch as the one where the best trading setups tend to appear.
From day 15 to day 45, if critical infrastructure is intact and the conflict has not widened much, the fear premium often fades. Oil retraces, gold cools and the dollar eases. Rebounds in stocks and Bitcoin become more attractive. The analysis says most trading mistakes come from using a first-phase strategy in a second-phase market.
What each market tells you
Oil leads because it reflects physical supply disruption. In both June 2019 and January 2020 it spiked on fear and then cooled once it was clear supply was still moving. The analysis points to Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic as the tell: if vessels keep moving, the market may be overpricing fear, and if traffic slows sharply, the oil move can extend.
Gold is usually the cleanest early hedge, because unlike oil it does not need a real supply disruption to rise. The analysis suggests watching spot gold against U.S. real yields. Gold that holds up while real yields climb points to genuine haven demand.
The dollar is less about geopolitics than liquidity. When fear is high, money tends to rotate into dollars first. A falling dollar against the yen often signals that peak panic is passing.
Stocks usually fall in the first phase, but the better opportunities tend to come after panic peaks. One signal is the VIX returning below the 3-month VIX contract. Bitcoin typically trades like a high-beta risk asset during the first panic and becomes more interesting if liquidity stress eases. It is not treated as a safe haven.
The risks that break the pattern
Bitget lists what could invalidate the cycle. A prolonged closure of Hormuz would turn oil from a headline trade into a real supply shock. An oil-driven inflation jump could push the Federal Reserve away from easing and deepen a stock sell-off. A broader liquidity crunch could keep Bitcoin falling regardless of other signals.
Of the March 2026 episode, the analysis says the market no longer looked like a pure panic and was testing whether the initial fear premium went too far. If conditions in Hormuz worsened, it warned, the cycle could snap back into shock quickly.
Bitget notes that its figures are approximate, that past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes, and that the analysis is not investment advice.
