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Nikkei Study Puts Big Tech’s Off-Balance-Sheet AI Commitments at $1.65 Trillion

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What Happens Next: Potential Market Impact and Investor Reactions

Eightfold in about four years. That is how fast the unrecorded obligations of five U.S. technology giants have grown, according to a study by Nikkei Asia that Business Standard reported on July 22, 2026. The total: around $1.65 trillion, more than the roughly $1.35 trillion of debt the same companies show on their balance sheets.

The five are Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Oracle. Nothing here is illegal. The commitments sit in the notes to their financial statements, and accounting rules allow that. But for an ordinary shareholder who reads only the headline debt figure, the picture is far smaller than the real one.

Where the money is going

Most of it traces back to artificial intelligence. The companies have signed long-term leases with data centre operators, who supply the land, buildings and power. They have also agreed to buy GPUs, servers and other equipment that has not yet been delivered. Until a facility is up and running, those promises stay off the balance sheet.

Meta carries the largest estimated amount, around $420 billion, nearly three times its reported debt. Oracle’s total reached about $273.3 billion by the end of May, more than 30 times what it was four years earlier. Oracle is building out its Stargate project with OpenAI through leases with outside operators.

Meta’s Louisiana data centre shows how the structure works. The company formed a joint venture with funds managed by Blue Owl Capital. The project was first valued at $27 billion in 2025; Meta now expects to put in more than $50 billion. It holds a minority stake in the operating company and leases the site, and the deal protects the investors if the lease ends because the facility is no longer needed.

How investors are reading it

Some are getting nervous. Morgan Stanley has written up the growing obligations in a report for its investor clients, and Moody’s has warned that lease commitments for projects not yet started are climbing quickly. Economists at the Bank for International Settlements called the approach “shadow borrowing.”

The companies see it differently. They argue that AI and cloud revenue will cover the bills. By the end of March, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon together reported a cloud order backlog of around $1.45 trillion.

The worry is what happens if demand cools. Experts cited by Nikkei Asia warned that if data centres sit underused, the companies could take large losses once the obligations move onto their balance sheets. Many of the firms are already selling bonds and shares because their AI spending is running ahead of their earnings.

Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta were all due to report quarterly results that same week, and the hidden-debt total could grow further when they did.

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