The real number may be worse than the headline. Ireland faces a €250 yearly rent hike by 2031 from air tourism, according to Transport & Environment. That figure sits on top of any other rent increases.
But the study itself flags a gap in the data. It looked only at formal accommodation — hotels and the like.
Informal rentals, including Airbnb, were left out. The report states plainly that if those nights were counted, “the growth rates would likely be higher still.” This is a close-read moment. The headline figure is a floor, not a ceiling.
The analysis comes from the New Economics Foundation, commissioned by T&E, the European clean transport advocacy group. The warning is direct: rising rents will “primarily affect lower-income households.” More tourists flying in means more demand for places to stay.
That pushes up costs for everyone, but the burden lands hardest on those with the least. Ireland is expected to see the largest rent increase of any country studied. Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal also face what T&E calls an “unaffordable housing crisis.” The group is calling for a new EU Sustainable Tourism Strategy.
It wants a focus on reducing international air arrivals in saturated regions. It also wants a wider analysis of the impacts of air tourism. The aviation sector is responsible for an estimated 52% of the global tourism industry’s direct emissions, according to the report.
Much of the sector’s emissions growth comes from tourism. In Europe, emissions from international tourist arrivals by air are projected to rise over 60% between 2016 and 2030.
Despite widespread “anti-tourism protests” in some popular destinations, the number of tourists arriving by air continues to rise. The report does not name specific protest cities or countries. It simply notes the trend.
People are angry. More planes keep landing.
Ireland and other countries are expanding air travel. The report mentions €12.9bn committed by the Spanish — the text cuts off there, but the point is clear. Investment in aviation infrastructure continues even as the housing crisis deepens.
The study’s limitation matters. Data for informal rentals is limited. That means the €250 figure is based on incomplete information.
If the rise in nights spent in Airbnb-style accommodation were included, the growth rates would be higher. The report says so itself.
So the question is not whether rents will rise. They will. The question is by how much.
The answer may be significantly more than €250 per year. T&E is pushing for a policy response.
The group wants the EU to step in. The call is for a strategy that does not just manage tourism but actively reduces air arrivals in places already saturated. The report argues for a wider analysis — not just of emissions, but of housing costs, local economies, and social impact.
Ireland is the worst-case scenario in this study. But it is not alone. The pattern holds across southern Europe.
Tourists fly in. Demand for accommodation spikes.
Rents climb. Local residents pay the price. The report does not offer a solution for Ireland specifically.
It points to the EU as the lever for change. Whether that lever will be pulled is unclear.
What is clear is that the data on informal rentals is missing, and that missing data likely hides a steeper climb.
